Iraq Seen as Big Winner in Gulf War : Diplomatic Analysts View Political Balance as Shifting From Iran

With the uneasy cease-fire still holding in the Persian Gulf on Sunday, diplomatic analysts believe the political balance in the Middle East has shifted significantly as result of the Iran-Iraq War.

Observers are now weighing a question that fascinates them: Who are the winners and losers in the war?

“The biggest winner is Iraqi President Saddam Hussein,” a Western ambassador here said. “Conversely, the biggest loser is Iranian leader Ayatollah (Ruhollah) Khomeini.

“I expect Iraq now to shift its focus into playing a much stronger regional role in the Middle East.”

Leadership of Arab World

Diplomatic observers believe that Iraq will spend more time pressing for the leadership of the Arab world, reviling its Arabic arch-enemy Syria and devoting more support to the Palestinian uprising in the Israeli-occupied West Bank of the Jordan River and the Gaza Strip.

Such attention bodes ill for Israel, say the analysts, many of whom believe that Israel is a net loser in the apparent outcome of the eight-year-old war.

Iran, as the major loser because of its defeats earlier this year and its humiliation in agreeing to a cease-fire, will find it difficult to maintain its role as the great wellspring of militant Muslim fundamentalism, specialists say.

“It is difficult to forecast what kind of role Iran will play in the area,” one veteran diplomat admitted. “But they have failed to export their revolution across the gulf, and they failed to rally Shia Muslims to their cause. Iran certainly does not appear as menacing to other countries today as it did a year ago.”

Once they can concentrate their energies away from the battlefront, both Iran and Iraq are expected to export as much oil as possible to obtain maximum income to bolster the wartime depletion of resources in both nations. Such policies, however, could depress crude oil prices on the world market and cause further disharmony in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, a cartel of which both are members.

In viewing the principal players in the Middle East drama, here is a diplomatic consensus of the winners and losers in the aftermath of the Iran-Iraq conflict:

-- Iraq: This country emerges as the most powerful force in the region, rivaled only by Egypt among the Arab states, with President Hussein in full and unquestioned control of his country.

-- Iran: The failure of the Iranian military this year has dulled the luster of the Shia Muslim revolution Tehran has tried to export and called into question the authority and judgment of Khomeini. No longer will the Arab oil-producing states of the region fear Iran in quite the same way. During the eight-year war and contrary to Khomeini’s expectations, large Shia populations outside Iran have remained loyal to their individual countries, not raising their branch of Islam above national considerations.

May Affect Hezbollah

This may also affect the pro-Iranian Hezbollah (Party of God) forces in Lebanon, who have been supported financially and morally by Iran in their efforts to bolster their power and influence there and in the abduction and holding of Western hostages.

-- Syria: President Hafez Assad’s continuing support of non-Arab Iran in the war has made him one of the conflict’s big losers. He will be a choice target of Iraqi diplomacy and propaganda.

“I look for Hussein to make life difficult for Assad,” said one Middle East analyst here. “He has many scores to settle. And Syria is already in deep economic trouble and bogged down with its troops and prestige in Lebanon.”

Iraq’s deputy prime minister, Taha Yassin Ramadan, accusing Syria of treachery for supporting Iran, recently demanded that it be expelled from the Arab League.

“Iraq has emerged as a big economic and political power,” argued Ramadan. “This (the truce in the Iran-Iraq War) will be a real blow to Syrian policies.”

-- The gulf Arab states: They no longer have to fear attempted religious takeovers by elements influenced by Iran, and their large Shia Muslim populations never responded to calls from Tehran for them to rebel.

Under Iraqi Influence

But they may come increasingly under the political hegemony of Iraq, which they supported in the war, although not as much as President Hussein would have liked. And their traditional fears of a powerful Iraq are second only to those centered on Iran.

Further, the oil revenues of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates are likely to suffer as result of the increased production and exports by Iraq and Iran.

-- Israel: It was in Israel’s perceived interest, diplomats say, to have the Persian Gulf conflict continue, since both belligerents are declared enemies of the Jewish state. Also, any additional Iraqi support for the Palestinians can hardly please Jerusalem.

Behind the scenes, Israel helped supply Iran--and encouraged the Reagan Administration in actions that resulted in the Iran-Contra affair--because it has traditionally seen the Baghdad regime as the greater danger. But Israel’s “favorite” came out second-best, and some Israeli voices are suggesting that quiet contact should be made with the Iraqis.

-- Lebanon: Iraq may play a larger role in faction-torn Lebanon since it tends to support the Christian Lebanese Forces militia, which has sworn to stop pro-Syrian Suleiman Franjieh from regaining the presidency.

Lebanon Roles ‘Destructive’

Iraq wants to reduce Syrian, Iranian and Israeli influence in Lebanon, Middle East experts say. Nizar Hamdoon, undersecretary in the Iraqi Foreign Ministry, put it this way recently: “Both the Israeli and Syrian roles in Lebanon have been destructive, and we think it is very important that the Lebanese people get their independence from those powers.”

-- The Palestinians: They are expected to receive additional support from Iraq, where the Palestine Liberation Organization has an office. But that support may depend on the future of the Palestinian uprising and policies still to be worked out by the Palestinian leadership. Still, they are thought to be a net winner from the conflict.

-- Libya: The Libyan strongman, Col. Moammar Kadafi, variously shifted his support during the Persian Gulf War, leading one observer here to comment: “The Iraqis regard Kadafi as volatile and unstable and will not invest much effort to improve relations with him.”

-- The superpowers: The United States and the Soviet Union both profit with cessation of hostilities, partly because it removes the potential for their being drawn into it.

Washington Reaction

Washington will be happy to see the Persian Gulf open again for unthreatened navigation and unhindered oil supplies to the West and Japan--which means the U.S. Navy can reduce its commitment in the area. Washington is on relatively good terms with Iraq, having tilted toward this Arab nation during the conflict. Recently, in addition, there have been inklings from Tehran that Iran’s leaders would like to begin restoring relations with Washington.

Similarly, the Soviet Union no longer has to worry about the danger of a conflict among heavily armed nations near its southern border. Nor will the Kremlin have to worry any longer about being accused by Iraq or Iran of supporting the other side.

“The Soviets were worried about America’s increasing influence in Iraq because of the war,” a Western diplomat said. “I’m sure they are glad the shooting has stopped.”

-- Western Europe: Most industrial nations believe they stand to profit from the war’s end, by gaining hefty contracts for the rebuilding of both countries’ economies and plant capacity.

“Most of us are looking forward to boom days ahead,” one candid European official said. “Both countries have large oil revenues and huge reserves, and they must devote much of this to economic redevelopment.”

Iraqi Forces Strengthened

As for the chief winner, Iraq, President Hussein has seen his armed forces emerge battle-hardened and, in their view, victorious, and they now rank among the most formidable in the Middle East.

“I think the main thing Iraq should try to avoid now,” commented a senior diplomat, “is the tendency toward triumphalism. This will be a worrisome aspect of Iraqi politics.

“Whatever the case, this will be a very, very interesting period in the area’s history.”

Meanwhile, the cease-fire that went into effect Saturday appeared to be holding, although the two belligerents exchanged charges of minor violations.

In another development, according to wire services, Iran said it is prepared to release 70 crippled Iraqi prisoners of war. Tehran Radio said the POWs are “ready to be freed” and will be handed over to the International Red Cross as soon as it is ready to receive them.