Guatemala President Buffeted by Army, Labor Unrest

Under pressure from extreme rightist military officers and mounting labor unrest, President Vinicio Cerezo Arevalo is facing the greatest challenge to his presidency in 2 1/2 years, according to diplomats and political analysts.

Cerezo is halfway through his term as one of the few civilian presidents in Guatemalan history, but some observers say he is so weak politically that he may not be able to serve out his five-year term. Other political analysts say they believe Cerezo will remain in office, but with little power.

“Cerezo is a skillful negotiator and he’ll play on the wishes of the (military) high command to retain at least the facade of a civilian government,” said a Western diplomat who declined to be identified by name. “He probably will survive in name as president, but his room for independent action is severely in doubt.”

Extremist sectors of the military have attempted coups twice this year against Cerezo and his defense minister, Brig. Gen. Hector Gramajo Morales.

The first was a serious uprising of troops from at least six garrisons in May that was put down without bloodshed. Then, earlier this month, diplomats and local media reported a new and, this time, unified move against the government that one diplomat called “an attempted coup by negotiation.”

Undisclosed List of Demands

According to diplomats and published accounts, field commanders from all 23 military districts met in the capital Aug. 9 to present an undisclosed list of demands, while six helicopters hovered over the capital and the National Palace.

In an interview last week, Cerezo denied a new coup attempt or military intervention in civilian affairs. He said that the meeting of the commanders was routine and that the helicopter flights were just a test. He called the coup reports “a political maneuver by the extreme right,” but acknowledged that the reports had taken on a life of their own and could prove destabilizing.

“It is a phantom coup attempt. It didn’t exist. There has been a systematic campaign of rumors,” the president said. “The observers may be feeling that there is uncertainty, but it is not so. If everyone believes there was a coup attempt, this could develop into a situation that gets out of control. . . . There is potential danger in the political situation because the right would not be spreading these rumors if they did not mean to destabilize the government.”

Army spokesmen also deny that there has been any military pressure on the civilian government.

A military observer, however, said there is “generalized discontent” among the armed forces that is “at least as serious” as the feelings that prompted the May 11 coup attempt, when some troops began to move on Guatemala City.

Two sources close to the military said the armed forces are pressing for the resignations of a number of Cabinet members and senior government officials, measures to alleviate the high cost of living that is fueling government labor strikes, and new weapons for the army, which is fighting a small leftist guerrilla insurgency.

The military had ruled or effectively controlled the government in Guatemala since 1954, when a popularly elected reformist government was ousted through a U.S.-backed coup. After that, four generals preceded Cerezo in the National Palace for 16 years, arriving through a series of coups and elections deemed fraudulent.

Under the generals, the military ran a brutal counterinsurgency campaign against the guerrillas, reportedly killing tens of thousands of Indian peasants, labor and community leaders and many members of Cerezo’s Christian Democratic Party. The military considers itself victorious in wiping out support for the rebels and reducing them to a relatively small force estimated at 1,200 to 1,500 fighters.

With the country nearly bankrupt and internationally isolated, the armed forces agreed to civilian elections in 1985, which Cerezo won by a landslide. But Cerezo’s support has eroded over the last 2 1/2 years as food and consumer goods prices have gone up.

In an effort to stabilize the economy and to gain International Monetary Fund loans, Cerezo devalued the quetzal, Guatemala’s currency, by 8%, unified the exchange rate and eliminated many government subsidies. He has raised electricity rates, bus fares and fuel prices, including the price of propane gas used for cooking.

Weak, Divided Trade Unions

The trade union movement, deprived of its leaders by assassinations in the late 1970s and early 1980s, is weak and divided. Public workers have launched strikes and slowdowns in several branches of the government, but the strikes have not been generalized and have had little effect on the economy or overall operation of the government. The labor unrest, however, together with student strikes, has added to the perception of instability.

On paper, the economic indicators for Guatemala are much better now than when Cerezo took office. There is a stable currency and positive annual growth rate of more than 3%. But economists predict that the rate of inflation this year could nearly double to between 17% and 20%.

Distribution of wealth is more lopsided in Guatemala than almost anywhere else in Latin America, and its tax rates are traditionally among Latin America’s lowest. Cerezo drew the wrath of the private sector with a tax increase scheduled to go into effect this year. The tax boost is believed partly responsible for efforts by extremists to incite the military by playing on allegations that Cerezo means to socialize Guatemala.

The armed forces accepted civilian rule on the condition that the government stay out of military affairs, not prosecute them for human rights abuses, and attempt no major land or economic reform. Cerezo has not broken any of the conditions, but the military has been exerting increasing influence on civilian affairs, according to diplomats and analysts, particularly since the May 11 coup attempt.

The Central American peace plan that Cerezo signed and heartily backed, largely to end the Contra war in Nicaragua, may have hastened the erosion of his own power at home. Under the plan, Cerezo held a dialogue with the Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unity guerrillas last October in Madrid. The guerrillas took out newspaper ads stating their demands to dismantle military structures at the same time that the army was suffering high casualties in a year-end offensive.

Cerezo and Defense Minister Gramajo argued that the rebels had to be drawn into the legal political system, but some military men felt that the rebels were being handed political opportunities that they had lost in the fighting.

On May 11, several hundred soldiers in truck convoys began to move on the capital from the southern towns of Retalhuleu and Jutiapa. They were stopped by troops loyal to Cerezo and Gramajo. Diplomats said that troops in at least four other bases were ready to join the uprising. All officers and civilians involved in the coup attempt were eventually granted amnesty.

Political analysts say human rights abuses have increased in recent months. The U.S. Embassy says that in the first five months of this year, there were 33 politically related deaths and 39 abductions. Higher figures were issued by the Central American Report, a weekly newsletter published by a think tank here, which said that 115 people were killed and 104 were abducted or disappeared.

In May, rebellious army troops reportedly accused the defense minister and government officials of corruption and demanded new weapons. Those issues were said to have been at the top of the list of topics debated during the Aug. 9 meeting of field commanders, at which sources said the commanders demanded the resignations of three Cabinet members who are still in their jobs.

In the interview, Cerezo said there was no list of demands.

Cerezo has said his goal is to turn power over to another elected civilian after five years. That may turn out to be a bigger challenge than some anticipated.

“Those who predicted the immediate flowering of Western-style democracy were being unrealistic,” a Western diplomat said. “Perhaps Cerezo was more realistic.”