Starting Over in Israel

Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir has peered into the abyss of Israeli politics and apparently recoiled from the prospect of forming a new government that would share power with the far-right and Orthodox religious parties. Instead Shamir’s Likud party is now seriously negotiating with the Labor party about continuing the coalition that, with some successes and many failures, has governed Israel for the last four years. The deal is not done, and talks could yet collapse. But, only three weeks after an election that saw leaders of both major parties denying that they were interested in continuing their uneasy alliance, such an arrangement in fact is emerging as a probable course of action.

A renewed Likud-Labor government would be the second worst thing that could happen in Israel’s politics. The worst would be if Likud went ahead and paid the price--in Cabinet seats, new laws and the like--that is being demanded by the religious and extreme-right parties for helping to ensure a parliamentary majority. Last week Shamir appeared on the verge of signing up these parties. What stayed his hand?

A major consideration clearly was the explosively hostile response of major American Jewish organizations to Shamir’s promised support for an Orthodox-sponsored amendment to the Israeli law that defines who is Jewish. Such an amendment would greatly strengthen the authority of Israel’s Orthodox rabbis, even as it would be seen by many as implicitly delegitimizing Judaism’s Reform and Conservative movements. The great majority of American Jews--90% is the usual figure--do not identify with Orthodoxy. The blunt warning delivered to Shamir was that a law redefining who is Jewish to the detriment of this large body would inevitably alienate many of Israel’s most important supporters.

At the same time, the Labor Party’s aging top leaders were facing the prospect--always bitter for politicians--of ending their careers in opposition, rather than as part of a coalition where they could help chart their nation’s course. Such a Likud-Labor coalition, with just under two-thirds of the seats in the Knesset, would not be scorned by most Israelis. But such a coalition would also all but guarantee internal political deadlock in Israel’s response to the growing challenge of Palestinian nationalism. A government that includes Labor could probably be counted on to temper some of the more outrageous and regressive impulses that have emerged in Israel’s political life. That would be welcome. But for now that’s about the best that can be said for what could be shaping up.