Arab Uprising at Crossroads: Downshifting of Violent Protests Debated

While young boys paint four-color national flags on building after building here in a display of certainty about the unformed state of Palestine, anti-Israeli activists within the same weathered walls nervously ponder the fate of their rebellion and if it should be kept up or quieted down.

Such self-questioning takes place in much of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, where violent action has wound down in recent weeks. Activists and supporters alike wonder if the time for stone throwing should now give way to a process of recovery from a painful 11-month struggle.

Some of the more hardened rebels stand in opposition. They are convinced that the intifada, as the uprising is known in Arabic, must pick up steam and turn more violent in order to oust Israel from the occupied territories. New factional splits among Arabs are whispered about.

Army Pressure Continues

Meanwhile, the Israeli army keeps up the pressure by taking the fight to the street protesters, who suffer casualties almost every day.

In Nablus earlier this week, young flag-waving demonstrators marched in honor of Palestinian statehood and, in an effort to avoid clashes, refrained from hurling stones at soldiers.

The soldiers opened fire anyway, wounding three bystanders, including a 90-year-old man.

“Perhaps the stone has lost its power,” said Shaker, a brawny block organizer in Nablus, the West Bank’s largest city. “We used to face mainly tear gas, rubber bullets and some live ammunition. Now the soldiers open up with live fire all the time and nothing else. It is time to come up with alternatives.”

Despite the mood of reflection, no one interviewed at several locations in the West Bank, Gaza and Jerusalem suggested that the intifada should be called off. At most, only a downshift was considered advisable.

“If we let up, the Israelis will be bolder. The intifada must go on,” said Hamed, a village organizer in Battir, near Jerusalem. Hamed got out of jail last week after serving six months for stoning Israeli troops.

With some regret, the intifada’s top leaders are admitting that they let the revolt drift for the past three months while they focused on ironing out details of a Palestinian declaration of independence, which was finally announced at a conference in Algiers last week.

“We left people on their own. It was a real loss,” said a Palestinian in close contact with the so-called Unified National Leadership for the Uprising in the Occupied Territories, the clandestine leaders of the intifada.

Now the leaders are debating tactical changes that would reduce emphasis on protests and strikes. Instead, moves to create the basic underpinnings of a state--a viable economy, educational institutions and professional, trade and political organizations--would dominate. They are even considering printing postage stamps and issuing passports.

“We need to give people something they can touch and feel so they know the state exists,” the leadership source said. “This doesn’t leave much time for rocks and Molotov cocktails. We are at a crossroads.”

Brief Euphoria

The rethinking follows brief euphoria over the declaration of an independent Palestinian state, issued by the Palestine National Council, the PLO’s so-called parliament in exile.

The PLO views the state as a basis for peace talks with Israel, with which it would share common borders and presumably live in peace. Israel, which has occupied the West Bank and Gaza for 21 years, flatly dismissed the PLO plan because it still regards the PLO as a terrorist organization and because Jerusalem, which Israel has proclaimed its indivisible capital, was also declared the capital of the new state.

The United States endorsed signs of moderation in the PLO’s overall statement but turned down the idea of a free state. About 48 other nations, including the Soviet Union and Egypt, have recognized the state of Palestine--for which no borders were specified, even though it is understood to encompass the West Bank and Gaza. The 12-member European Communities called for Israel to make some positive response as well.

The declaration fulfilled a key goal of the intifada. But notwithstanding the red, white, green and black Palestinian flags now popping up throughout the occupied territories, it is not clear what comes next.

A decision to build an infrastructure for a new state would resolve some urgent problems faced by the 1.5 million Palestinians who live in the West Bank and Gaza.

For example, a buildup of the Arab economy would ease pressure on merchants and industrialists who have backed the intifada with frequent business closures. Stores in the West Bank and Gaza are open only part time during each weekday. Many factories that made goods for the Israeli market or relied on Israeli-supplied raw materials are shut.

Intifada leaders are considering permitting businesses to operate longer hours each day.

“We need a breather,” said Said Kanaan, a pharmacist in Nablus and a prominent Palestinian spokesman. Kanaan suggested that Palestinians should cool off while the PLO tries to make headway in winning foreign support for a new state.

People in general are tired, he added; the daily give and take in the streets has taken a toll on everyone’s nerves. “We still have strength, but we should not overburden ourselves,” Kanaan said.

Schools Still Shut

Many Palestinians are fretful about the yearlong closure of schools, which Israel shuttered on the grounds that they breed revolt. The Israeli government has promised to reopen elementary and high schools next month, but there is no word on when colleges might start up. Foreign consulates in Israel that serve West Bank and Gaza Arabs report a 40% increase in requests for student visas this year.

“We need to educate our children, and if it means banning demonstrations in schools, we should go along with it,” said Walid, a father of four in the village of Tel, near Nablus.

Mounting injuries might also be a factor in slowing the intifada. Almost 300 Palestinians have been killed during the uprising, and thousands wounded. Three months ago, Israeli soldiers began firing plastic bullets, a move that coincided with new, more liberal shooting orders for the troops. Soldiers no longer need to be in danger of their lives to pull the trigger.

Although plastic bullets--actually plastic over metal--were said to be less lethal than lead bullets, the frequency of killing continued apace after they went into use.

“We are sending young men into battle without a clear idea of what is coming next. That makes it hard to keep going,” said Abu Gnosh, a neighborhood leader in Nablus.

Grass-roots organizers are split over the wisdom of cutting back on protests. Such a decision may not work anyway, they point out, because control of the uprising is loose and free-lance attacks on Israeli soldiers and civilians are common. Also, Israeli troops enter towns, villages and even homes whether provoked or not, tempting the more bellicose residents to respond with rocks or gasoline bombs.

“Israel is using a get-tough policy, and we cannot stand around with our arms crossed,” said Samid, a Nablus shebab, or youth, a common term for front-line activists.

Commented a pro-PLO sheik at a leading Nablus mosque: “There is talk about slowing down. But what we do may not matter. When the Israelis come with their guns, we have no choice but to fight back.”

Some shebab think that Israel could take advantage of a lull to penetrate the ranks of the intifada and round up or kill hard-core participants. “I think that if we pull back, we are finished,” declared Shaker, the Nablus block organizer. “The Israelis are looking for the leaders, the ones on the block.

“They want me dead,” he said quietly. Soldiers have frequently visited his home looking for him, Shaker added. He sleeps elsewhere.

Activists warn that any change of tactics increases the potential for a split within Palestinian ranks. Already, Muslim fundamentalists who oppose any plan that implies Israel’s continued existence have criticized the Algiers declaration and called for an armed uprising.

Some shebab think that the leadership may be getting soft. “Should we make education the priority? Business?” asked Mohammed, a teacher living in Tel. “We are under occupation. Getting rid of the Israelis, that should be our priority.”

The intifada has had numerous ups and downs since it began last December, when mass anti-Israeli demonstrations were the rule. The activity soon moved to smaller, more violent attacks on soldiers and civilian traffic in the West Bank and Gaza, receded in the spring when Israel arrested hundreds of organizers and participants, revived in the summer and then subsided a bit this fall as the PLO meeting approached.