Japan December Trade Surplus Sets a Record

Japan said today that its December trade surplus rose to $9.65 billion, the highest monthly level ever, from $8.61 billion a year ago on an unadjusted basis.

For the year, the deficit fell slightly to $77.39 billion from $79.70 billion.

Both exports and imports grew at just slightly more than 11% in December from a year earlier, the government said. The monthly deficit on an adjusted basis fell to $7.10 billion from $7.63 billion a month earlier.

Economists generally expected the large December jump because worldwide demand for electrical and general machinery to tool up factories has been strong.

Economists said the full-year figures were generally disappointing. “These figures hide the reversal in the real trend in a way,” said economist Kenneth Courtis of DB Capital Markets (Asia) Ltd. Most of 1988’s reduction was accomplished in the first part of the year, and now the monthly surpluses are on the rise, he added.

“It wasn’t until June when the new export boom began,” Courtis said.

Japan tried to put a brave face on the figures, with the government forecasting a further fall in the trade surplus in the fiscal year beginning April 1.

“We are on the right track and will continue to be so in the coming year,” said Mitoji Yabunaka, a director at the Foreign Ministry.

Drop Expected

The government expects its trade surplus to drop to $88 billion from $93 billion in the next year.

The forecast figures are not directly comparable to those released today for the 1988 calendar year because they are calculated on a different basis, which tends to push up the value of exports and inflate the surplus.

Economists said the export boom has been mainly to countries and regions other than the United States. In the past, most exports went to the United States.