Moscow Proposes Big Cuts in Its Conventional Forces

The Soviet Union on Tuesday proposed sweeping reductions in its military forces in Europe as part of a comprehensive deal with the Western Alliance on conventional arms, including cutting 1.26 million troops and tens of thousands of tanks, artillery and armored vehicles, U.S. officials disclosed.

The proposals, along with several other initiatives that appear to move the Warsaw Pact’s position on a new arms accord much closer to that of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, were made by Soviet arms negotiators at a closed meeting with U.S. and allied officials in Vienna, State and Defense Department officials said.

The Soviet proposals, which officials said were largely unexpected, include acceptance of two key provisions advanced by the West in March: a rule specifying the maximum forces to be maintained in Europe by any country and the maximum arsenal that any nation can station outside its territory.

Both Western ideas were missing from the Warsaw Pact’s initial proposal, and, before Tuesday, Soviet officials had denounced them as unfairly harsh. More than half of the tanks, artillery and armored personnel carriers in Europe are Soviet; the Western proposal was designed to shrink that share to less than one-third.

In accepting the ideas, and proposing a cap on the military forces of any nation that is close to what NATO demanded, the Soviet Union effectively spelled out for the first time how much its arsenal must shrink whenever a new treaty takes effect, the officials said.

Specifically, Moscow proposed limits that would require cuts of 17,580 tanks and about 27,000 armored personnel carriers beyond the unilateral cuts announced by Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev at the United Nations last December. Such reductions would shrink the arsenal of Soviet forces to a level “within the ballpark” demanded by NATO, one U.S. official said.

Moscow also proposed to cut 24,775 artillery pieces beyond those included in the unilateral reductions. This would still leave the Soviets with more artillery weapons than NATO wants, although it’s possible that the Soviets have included weapons in their tally that NATO does not count. All of the totals are based on Soviet tallies of their forces published last January, which differ in some respects from U.S. estimates.

A State Department official described the Soviet acceptance of a tough limit on their forces as “really astonishing.”

“I can only conclude that they must be interested in getting an agreement, and they are willing to do a lot . . . to get it,” said another official who described himself as optimistic about the prospects for an early accord because of the Soviet disclosure.

Noting that the latest announcement follows by only 12 days the disclosure of other Soviet concessions during a Moscow visit by Secretary of State James A. Baker III, this official said that “virtually everything the Warsaw Pact has done (in the negotiations) has matched the form and very nearly the levels of our proposal.”

The Soviets told Baker they agreed that NATO and Warsaw Pact tanks and armored personnel carriers could be reduced to the levels NATO demanded. The Soviets have similarly followed NATO’s lead in proposing special restrictions on forces deployed in certain zones near the East-West border in Europe.

A Defense Department official said the Soviets’ flexibility indicates how urgently Gorbachev wants to pare military expenditures and may reflect a new Soviet attitude that “they can control their allies better through diplomacy than through a military threat.”

Brookings Institution analyst Raymond Garthoff said: “I think this is a very significant development and carries further the clear impression raised by their initial proposals that they are serious. If they just wanted to stake out positions that would sound good but would not really meet our concerns, they could easily have done so . . . (but instead) they made an effort . . . to come up with positions they think should be acceptable to both sides.”

The new Soviet proposal would require withdrawing at least 45,000 Soviet troops from Eastern Europe beyond the 240,000 troops being eliminated unilaterally before 1991. However, it would also allow the stationing of 1,300 more Soviet tanks in Eastern Europe than NATO wants and 1,500 more personnel carriers.

Only one of the Soviets’ proposed new limits--covering helicopters--would impinge on forces deployed by the United States or its allies in Europe, according to Warsaw Pact tallies. Otherwise, “they have come forward with some numbers that basically are a severe limitation on themselves and nobody else,” said a Pentagon consultant on conventional forces, who asked not to be identified.

“The big news is that they are reinforcing the impression that they are ready to take big cuts in key, ground-force armaments,” said Edward T. Warner, a RAND Corp. analyst.

The Soviets have suggested beginning the cuts in 1991 and finishing by 1997, at which point the two sides should begin eliminating one-quarter of the remaining forces. The Bush Administration, however, has not said when the cuts should begin or whether it will support reductions beyond those described in the current NATO proposal.

NATO has opposed any troop limits on grounds that compliance could not be verified. NATO’s position is that troop levels can be unilaterally reduced as weapons are eliminated.

NATO has also opposed any restriction on either side’s aircraft, while the Soviets have indicated they are willing to cut 3,955 planes and 850 helicopters as part of a European arms accord.

ALLIED RIFT PERSISTS--An accord before the NATO summit was doubted. Page 13