Iranians Apprehensive Over Succession to Khomeini

Life began creeping back toward what resembles normality here Wednesday, but the death of the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini has left a current of apprehension in the overheated air.

Everywhere, people are reading newspapers and listening to radios for news of political developments.

At best, the maneuvering for political succession will lead to an unsettled period ahead, diplomats said, and at worst, it could lead to a form of civil terror.

“The economy is in very bad shape,” said a Western ambassador, “and people are unhappy about that. Prices on everything have soared. So very much depends on whether the new regime can stabilize and improve the economy--and whether the army hangs together behind it.”

‘Show What It Can Do’

A knowledgeable resident added: “I think the government has four to six months to pull itself together and show what it can do. Otherwise, there are extremist groups who would like to create trouble so that they could take over.

“Compared to these underground extremists of the left and right, the government appears almost moderate. They are the ones who could begin assassinations and bombings to make serious trouble.”

These groups range from the Fedayeen of the radical left, who would establish an almost anarchic socialist state, to those fundamentalists of the religious ultraright who would prohibit women from appearing in public and forbid them to drive cars.

Khomeini, the 86-year-old Shiite Muslim patriarch who held almost godlike stature among most of Iran’s 50 million population, died Saturday of heart failure after surgery. His funeral and burial Monday were marked by a religious frenzy on the part of hundreds of thousands of mourners.

Iranian news reports said Wednesday that almost 11,000 people have been injured during the demonstrations of national grief since Khomeini died. Eight deaths reportedly resulted from the funeral Monday.

One political problem for Iran is that Khomeini, sometimes called simply the Imam, left no clear successor. Such a vacuum, analysts here say, could very likely lead to a fight for control of the oil-wealthy nation.

Reasonable Compromise

However, diplomats and other observers who are more hopeful suggest that a reasonable compromise could be made among the present top leadership.

President Ali Khamenei was named to succeed Khomeini as the nation’s spiritual leader, but no one is clearly marked to succeed the old man in his other capacity, that of supreme political leader.

Khamenei is said to get along well with Speaker of Parliament Hashemi Rafsanjani, who is generally considered Iran’s strongest politician.

Khamenei’s term as president expires in August, when a presidential election is scheduled, and he cannot succeed himself. So far, Rafsanjani is the only declared candidate. Rafsanjani would like to abolish the position of prime minister, currently held by Hussein Moussavi, in order to concentrate power in the presidency.

While Moussavi is considered less of a pragmatist than Rafsanjani, and less likely to consider compromise with the West, analysts here said Wednesday that the men could probably get along and another suitable job could be found for Moussavi.

“Below Khomeini, there have always been coalitions,” said a diplomat. “Nobody holds power alone. I think this system will continue.”

Since the Khomeini-inspired Islamic revolution that toppled the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979, Iran has been ruled by a clergy-controlled government consisting of senior mullahs of the Shiite sect. The Khomeini regime was characterized by religious fundamentalism and a hatred of the West, particularly the United States.

Much will depend on whether the army remains loyal to the government. So far, Rafsanjani has had widespread support within the armed forces, of which he is the head.

Iran’s faltering economy, stricken by the eight-year Persian Gulf War with Iraq, has been matched in ineptness by a renewed heavy hand in foreign relations, notably the death threat against British author Salman Rushdie for his allegedly blasphemous novel, “The Satanic Verses.”

“I think the government was not happy over these measures,” a senior attache here speculated. “ . . but when they found that Khomeini was determined to press the issue, the other leaders backed off. It has not helped Iran.”

As for the possibility of improved relations with the United States, observers here said there will be no immediate overtures from Iran.

“It is not so much that the Iranians are leery of the U.S. as a country, but it is the superpower status--like that of the Soviet Union--that they don’t like. Iran will remain unaligned.”

The citizens of this sprawling capital seem calmer now than a year ago, when the gulf war threatened the city with missile attacks.

Further, families are vastly relieved that their young men do not have to go off to fight the Iraqis in the marshes and mountains--but they worry that if the cease-fire is not formalized by a peace treaty, the war could start again, with horrendous results. It has been estimated that half a million people died on each side during the war.

Whatever happens, it is clear that Iran will bear the Imam’s image for years to come. “No one in this country has one-twentieth the standing of Khomeini,” a businessman said Wednesday.