Japan’s H-2 Rocket Program Sputtering Toward Takeoff

The H-2 rocket, Japan’s great hope for entering the international satellite-launching market, is hurtling toward a commercial void, little able to pose serious competition to Europe or the United States.

Scheduled for blastoff in early 1992, the H-2 will be Japan’s first entirely home-built rocket and will enable the nation to launch satellites in the international market for the first time.

Launch costs look astronomical, and industry analysts say the rocket will be unable to compete with U.S. and European satellite launchers for at least five years after the 1992 launching.

“Unless the government subsidizes it, the H-2 satellite launches will not be cost-competitive against the Europeans and the Americans in the medium term of five to 10 years,” said Keisuke Kasagi, aerospace analyst at brokerage W. I. Carr (Overseas) Ltd. in Tokyo.

Even Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, lead contractor in the development of the rocket, is uncertain.

“I have no answer at this time on whether H-2 will be more expensive to start with than its competitors,” said Toshio Masutani, general manager of the space systems department at Mitsubishi Heavy.

The H-2 will be able to put into orbit satellites weighing a total of 2.2 metric tons, the same as the Ariane 4 launched by France’s Arianespace and competitive with the 2.4-ton space shuttle of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Costly Prototype

The government has set a target of 14.72 billion yen ($105.35 million) for the cost of building the first H-2 rocket, according to Nippon Oils & Fats, a supplier of rocket fuel.

That figure includes only the manufacture and material costs of a single H-2 and is divorced from the massive funds being spent on developing a prototype.

Mitsubishi’s Masutani said engineers are working hard to reduce the cost of building the rocket and analysts agreed that ruthless cost-cutting may show considerable success.

The stumbling block is fuel.

The H-2’s sophisticated double-stage boosters require 99 tons of liquid hydrogen and 118 tons of solid propellant.

The solid fuel will cost about 670 million yen ($4.78 million), industry sources said. Liquid hydrogen is much more expensive.

A spokesman for oxygen-hydrogen supplier Toyo Sanso KK said 99 tons of liquid fuel costs about 2.828 billion yen ($20.2 million).

Comparative costs for European and U.S. rockets were not available, but analysts said the H-2 may be seen as a fuel guzzler for two reasons.

One is weight. Arianespace launches from an equatorial site in French Guiana so rockets soar straight into orbit over the Equator, an optimum position for satellites.

The H-2 needs an elaborate, heavy steering system to guide it from its launch pad in Tanegashima in southern Japan to pierce the earth’s atmosphere above the Equator.

“We will have a 10% (efficiency) loss because we are not underneath the Equator, but this is our national policy, so there is no way to change,” said Mitsubishi’s Masutani.

The H-2’s double-stage engine, in which the second booster roars into action during the rocket’s ascent, is also seen as a voracious fuel guzzler.

Japan is currently unable to launch satellites for other countries with its existing H-1 rocket without prior permission from the United States, which helped build it.

‘Preoccupied’ With Rocket

Many here view the H-2, which annually claims the lion’s share of the space budget, as a project of national pride.

“I am preoccupied with the H-2 rocket. This is a major project for Japan which we must make succeed,” said Yutaka Kume, president of Nissan Motor.

Analysts said Japan may try to corner the quality end of the market by gaining a reputation for infallibility.

“I think in the future satellites will be much more expensive systems, much bigger and much higher priced,” said Mitsubishi’s Masutani. “So I think customers’ first requirement will be reliability. They need a 100% successful launch record,” he added.

“Insurance companies are also watching very carefully which systems are the most reliable,” he said, noting that insurance for satellites is very costly.

In order to gain a reputation for reliability, Masutani said the H-2 will have three or four test launches over the two and a half years after its debut in 1992.