Japan Election Today Expected to Bring Ruling Party Its 1st Loss in National Vote

Paralyzed by a crisis of leadership and a loss of voter confidence, the perennial ruling party of Japan faced its first-ever defeat in a national election today.

Voters cast ballots in a crucial election for the upper house of Parliament, with every poll in the country predicting that they will deprive the Liberal Democratic Party of its majority and hand the ideologically oriented Socialist Party major gains.

If the pollsters are correct, the ruling party would lose outright control of legislation for the first time since it was founded in 1955. All bills except the national budget and treaties must be approved by the House of Councillors, as the upper chamber is called.

Calls for Prime Minister Sosuke Uno’s resignation and an early dissolution of the powerful lower house, which chooses the prime minister, are also expected to surface as soon as the final outcome of the election becomes clear Monday. The term of the lower house expires July 5, 1990.

There was no clear outlook on how the ruling party might overcome the crippling of its ability to adopt legislation, if today’s balloting turns out as expected.

The two most likely candidates for a conservative-led coalition--the middle-of-the-road Democratic Socialist Party and the neo-Buddhist Komei (Clean Government Party)--have both declared that they will reject any overtures from the conservative Liberal Democrats.

Shin Kanemaru, a former deputy premier, predicted that the Liberal Democrats would need “at least six years--and maybe even 12--to recover” from the anticipated defeat.

Ryutaro Hashimoto, the Liberal Democrats’ secretary general, who has publicly conceded the conservatives’ likely defeat, attributed the voters’ mass defection to distrust provoked by party leaders who accepted windfall stock profits and other contributions from the Recruit Co., an information and real estate conglomerate.

Controversial Tax

Hashimoto also acknowledged that the Liberal Democrats have been unable to respond effectively to complaints about a new 3% consumption tax, which polls show to be the focal point of the public’s wrath.

During an election campaign three years ago, the Liberal Democrats promised not to impose any extensive indirect tax, but then they proceeded to ram a reform package containing the controversial tax through Parliament last December. The tax took effect April 1.

Uno, in an 11th-hour attempt to reduce voters’ anger, promised Thursday that the 3% rate would never be raised. He also pledged to use all national revenue from the tax for welfare and said the ruling party would review the tax with an eye toward revisions. He failed to specify what the review might involve.

Socialist Chairwoman Takako Doi urged the voters to repay the Liberal Democrats for their broken promise by turning the upper house election into the “Boston Tea Party of Japan.”

Farmers also were reported to have lost faith in Liberal Democratic promises of protection after Japan’s decision last year to bow to U.S. demands and eliminate quotas on imports of beef and citrus fruit effective April 1, 1991.

Although Japan’s economy remains robust, with a growth rate of at least 5% expected this year, all polls show major voter defections arising from distrust caused by the Liberal Democrats’ actions and scandals.

The Asahi newspaper reported Saturday that support for the party was only 25.6% in its most recent poll--the lowest ever for the party. But that poll did offer a measure of hope for the conservatives. The Socialists, to whom voters are turning in protest, came in even lower, at 22.1%.

Voters supporting no party rose to a record high of 41%, the Asahi said. The ballots of this bloc of voters today are expected to determine the final result.

Skies were clear across the nation. The Home Affairs Ministry said the turnout in the first three hours was about a half of a percent lower than at the same stage of voting three years ago, when the final turnout was 71%.

Contrary to expectations, the turnout among men was outstripping that of women by more than 2%.

With 73 holdover Liberal Democratic seats in the House of Councillors not up for grabs today, the conservatives have to win only 54, or 43%, of the 126 seats at stake to retain a majority in the 252-seat chamber. Polls, however, showed that the conservatives would fall as many as 20 seats short.

Uno, shunted aside during most of the 18-day campaign by a sex-for-money scandal involving a geisha, made only six campaign speeches.

In his final speech at party headquarters Saturday, Uno urged voters to reject socialism and support “a free structure, a free economy and a free society.”

Socialist leader Doi challenged voters “to show that Japanese democracy is alive” by depriving the Liberal Democrats of a majority and opening a path for a future change in governments.

The campaign ended with the ruling party in unprecedented disarray. With all of its major factional leaders tainted by the Recruit scandal and Uno sidelined, no prominent conservatives even participated.

Procedures Debated

For the last two weeks of the campaign, Liberal Democratic leaders, in expectation of defeat, debated procedures for selecting a successor to Uno, who had replaced former Prime Minister Noboru Takeshita on June 2 after Takeshita resigned to accept responsibility for the Recruit scandal. But no accord on either procedures or a likely successor emerged.

With no untainted replacement in sight, Uno may have the chance to stay in office until Oct. 30, when the term as party president that he inherited from Takeshita ends.

Although only a side issue in the campaign, opinion polls detected widespread revulsion among voters toward China and Beijing’s bloody repression of the pro-democracy movement, attitudes that could affect Japan’s relations with its giant neighbor.

The sentiment showed up in dwindling support for Japan’s Communist Party. Despite the party’s own severe condemnation of China, voters associate its political philosophy with that of the Communist government that led to the Tian An Men massacre in Beijing.