Study Sees Continued Job Growth in County, Outpacing State, U.S.
Job growth in Orange County through the year 2000 will not match the frantic pace of the last two decades but will continue to outpace California and the nation as a whole, according to a new study of the region’s economic trends released Tuesday.
The county will add 319,100 new jobs from 1990 to 2000, predicted Robert K. Arnold, chairman of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy and chief economist for the real estate firm Marcus & Millichap. Job growth will total 33.8% for the period, against 26.2% growth in California and 13.4% in the United States as a whole.
But next year, as the national economy slows, the county will add just 32,200 new jobs, Arnold predicted, in contrast with about 34,400 this year and 46,000 in 1988. The 4% yearly job growth rates of 1970s and 1980s, moreover, are being replaced by more modest 2% to 3% compound annual gains.
Generally Positive Forecast
Arnold’s projections are based on a generally positive national economic forecast that anticipates significant export growth, a decline in the budget deficit because of Social Security trust fund surpluses, low interest rates and increased government investment in education and infrastructure.
In Orange County--as in the rest of the country--employment growth will be driven by robust expansion in business services and wholesale trade and modest gains in the high-tech manufacturing sector, Arnold said.
While Arnold’s bullish outlook on the county is shared by many economists, some believe that he is a tad optimistic. Phillip Bincent, an economist with First Interstate Bank, said the job-growth figures are “within the range of possibility” but fail to account for some possible obstacles to continued economic buoyancy.
Progress on Transportation
“A very important issue is how much progress is made on the transportation problem--it’s fundamental,” Bincent said. Failure to solve the traffic problem will add strength to the slow-growth movement and thus threaten the local economy.
Bincent was also pessimistic about the possibility of a reduction in the budget deficit and a significant expansion in export industries.
Joseph Wahed, senior economist at Wells Fargo Bank, said his own study showed that county employment would grow at 2.8% annually over the next 20 years--even higher than the 2.5% anticipated by Arnold.
ORANGE COUNTY JOBS FORECAST
Job 1980 1985 1988 1989 1990 2000 High-Tech Mfg. * 74.0 84.5 83.4 82.0 83.0 95.9 Aerospace 18.5 20.0 24.9 25.4 25.4 21.9 Other Mfg. 131.4 137.4 148.8 153.3 157.3 153.6 Non-Mfg. & Trans. ** 142.6 203.8 234.8 251.7 266.3 362.1 Retail & Services *** 477.4 562.6 648.6 662.5 675.1 892.7 Total Jobs 843.8 1,008.3 1,140.5 1,174.9 1,207.1 1,526.2
Annual Averages in Thousands
* Computers, communications equipment, electronic components and instruments.
**Includes wholesale, hotels, business services, agriculture, mining, federal government and state education.
*** Includes construction, financial services, insurance, real estate and local government.
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Dept., Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy and State Employment Development Dept.
