Ortega Takes Up Arms, Firing at Plans for Peace : Nicaragua: The decision to end the 19-month Contra truce upsets hopes in the region for peaceful creation of a new democratic regime.

In one of his most egregious bumbles to date, President Daniel Ortega has ended the truce with the Contras, thereby endangering the whole carefully constructed Central American peace process and raising doubts about whether he intends to go through with the February elections. No matter what one believes Ortega’s ultimate objective to be, this was a dumb move.

Some of Ortega’s earlier political gaffs might have been excused on grounds of inexperience--but after a decade in power, that will no longer do. One must now conclude that the man has no political instincts--or that those he does have are bad. Whichever, many in the United States who have advocated and worked for a peaceful solution in Nicaragua--and a more normal relationship between our two countries--are beginning to feel trapped. They are caught between a U.S. Administration seemingly incapable of formulating a principled, effective policy for Central America and a Nicaraguan president determined to be his own worst enemy--and theirs.

There he was last week in San Jose, at the gathering of Western Hemisphere presidents, come to celebrate the anniversary of Costa Rican democracy and--though it was not on the program--to honor the peace efforts of President Oscar Arias of Costa Rica. Peace and democracy: Those were the themes. Ortega, wearing combat fatigues and a bandanna, was dressed to defy those themes when he declared his intention to resume full-scale war against the Contras.

The Latin American presidents were dismayed and angered; Nicaraguans were appalled. Did this mean more years of bloody fighting? The Soviets, who have vowed full support for the Central American peace efforts, were taken aback. Even the Cubans seemed puzzled about what Ortega was doing. Possibly the only ones pleased were the Contras themselves--and hawks in the United States, who are once again calling for war.

It was not that Ortega did not have a legitimate complaint. He subsequently insisted that he had simply been trying to jolt the assembled presidents into the realization that they must address continued Contra violations of the cease-fire. Several violations in recent weeks have been of major proportions, while the United States and the other Central American presidents have turned a blind eye.

The Central American accords, Ortega pointed out, call for the Contras to be disbanded by Dec. 5, and, in the meantime, to respect the cease-fire. The Bush Administration, however, has insisted the Contras remain intact as a fighting force until after the elections--a guarantee against Sandinista cheating. That creates a problem, for many Contras do not want elections to be held, and they have continued military operations in hopes of aborting them. The discrepancy must be addressed, and it is one that the Bush Administration is largely responsible for.

But while the substance of Ortega’s complaint may have had validity, his way of raising it not only harmed his own cause, but that of the entire peace process. A clever statesman could have found better ways of putting it. He might, for example, have phrased it as an appeal to the other presidents for help in resolving the electoral process. Or he could have called on the Contras to observe the cease-fire; on the United States to cut off assistance if they did not do so. He certainly should have asked the United Nations to get involved--as he finally did on Friday.

In the absence of such initiatives, Ortega could have said, Nicaragua might be forced to take measures it had no wish to--perhaps even reaching the point where it would have to suspend the cease-fire and respond militarily to Contra violations. That way of presenting the matter would have placed the suspension as an unwanted option--adopted only if all others failed. As it was, Ortega sprang it as a fait accompli , and in such a way that the other presidents took it as a slap in the face.

Realizing too late that he had stirred up a hornet’s nest, Ortega seemed for a day or two to be backpedaling. But another major Contra violation last week apparently made him decide to brazen it out. Other Nicaraguan officials have suggested that resumption of military operations may be short-lived. A U.N. spokesman said Friday that the Sandinista government and the Contras have agreed to meet Monday and Tuesday in their first direct talks in more than a year. The interested parties should come with constructive attitudes. It is especially important the Bush Administration make clear that it will not tolerate any further Contra violations.

Both the Contras and the internal opposition in Nicaragua were, of course, quick to charge that Ortega’s real intention was to abort the elections. They claim the Sandinistas now fear they will lose. Ortega himself, however, has stated categorically that the elections will take place on schedule. Given that internal polls continue to project a Sandinista victory and that, without elections, Nicaragua has no chance of getting the Western European economic backing it needs, there is reason to believe him.

Even if the cease-fire is renewed and elections held, a good deal of damage has been done. There are new reports of divisions within the Sandinista leadership itself--divisions that do not auger well for a smooth electoral process. Meanwhile, many U.S. congressmen who have fought against aid to the Contras--on grounds that it was ineffective and inconsistent with U.S. values and international law--have grown tired of having Ortega repeatedly cut the legs out from under them. They remember defeating a Reagan Administration Contra-aid bill in April, 1985, only to watch Ortega leave immediately for a state visit to Moscow. As the result of that trip, Congress reversed itself and, a few weeks later, passed the bill.

Recently there has been growing sentiment in Congress to cooperate with the Central American presidents by reducing aid and forcing the Contras to disband before February. But Ortega’s statement--with its specter of renewed heavy fighting--now makes that impossible. Suspicions of Ortega’s intentions have been raised anew and Congress seems in favor of continuing aid right up through the elections.

Some conservatives are even urging President Bush to ask Congress for renewed military aid to the Contras. That would only make a bloody situation bloodier. But thanks to Ortega, turning back any such initiative will be difficult. Ortega must learn--if he is capable of learning--that politics is a hard task master. One’s gaucheries may be unintentional, but the consequences are no less harsh, and no less real.