History Isn’t Finished With Cuauhtemoc Cardenas : Mexico: The third-party left only seems to be out of the power loop. Its popularity is strong where moral authority counts: in the grass roots.

This time last year, after a highly disputed presidential election, Mexico was bordering on a constitutional crisis. Opposition candidate Cuauhtemoc Cardenas had delivered what seemed then to be an almost fatal blow to the official party and its designated heir, Carlos Salinas de Gortari.

Today Cardenas sets out on a one-week tour to present his case to influential people in the United States (including Los Angeles). Back home, Salinas seems to be firmly in charge, and his party is still in control of all but one state. Where does that leave Cardenas and his movement?

Many Americans, reading about Salinas’ accomplishments, might think that last year’s turmoil is only a memory, that the democratic clamor of the people has subsided, that the Cardenas-led opposition is becoming irrelevant. In fact, beyond the superficial image of “business as usual,” Mexico’s political system is still suffering from last year’s schism. There is a profound cleavage and antagonism between the government and the opposition due to Cardenas’ democratic obstinacy and his refusal to recognize the validity of last year’s official election results.

Many analysts, both in Mexico and in the United States, see this Salinas-Cardenas confrontation as a zero-sum game in which all Salinas’ achievements must be counted as Cardenas’ losses. The spectacular moves and the firm hand shown by Salinas during his first year have created the impression that he has consolidated power and gained political credibility at the expense of the strength and prestige built by Cardenas during the presidential campaign.

It is true that today Salinas enjoys a high rate of approval, particularly among the middle classes, direct beneficiaries of his economic program. But, surprising as it might seem, this approval has not been accompanied by a proportionate decline in Cardenas’ popularity. A recent opinion poll conducted in Mexico by the Los Angeles Times showed that while Salinas’ approval may be as high as 69%, Cardenas is viewed favorably by at least 50% of his compatriots. This apparent aberration is simply evidence of the transition Mexico is now experiencing. The public is torn between old and new: between the traditional sense of security given by the authoritarian presidency and the new aspirations of electoral democracy, pluralism, a peaceful alternation of power and government honesty and accountability. Mexicans are divided between the hope of social justice and economic equality represented by Cardenas and the dream of efficiency, prosperity and economic modernization expressed by Salinas.

Over the last year, Cardenas has been trying to mobilize people to solve these differences and take these issues to the polls. He has organized a new political party, the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), and is demanding that the government devise a fair and competitive electoral system where vote counting is clean and open.

The results are mixed. His greatest political achievement has been to keep alive his almost mystical link with the Mexican people. As he travels week after week across the country, Cardenas continues to turn out huge crowds and evoke extraordinary devotion from broad sectors of Mexican society. He has been able, so far, to use this moral authority to keep the disenchanted masses and his frustrated supporters away from violent confrontations with the government--a gain for Mexico and a true gift to the government of Carlos Salinas.

Cardenas’ most notable failure has been his inability to oblige the government to accept meaningful electoral reform. A year ago, facing a crisis of legitimacy and driven by the need to build support and consensus, Salinas adopted one of Cardenas’ original demands: serious political reform. Salinas failed to deliver, and Cardenas’ did not have the force necessary to make it happen. He has until now not been able to transform his personal following into an effective political instrument to defend the vote.

Encouraged by their successful confrontation with Cardenas and the PRD, the government and the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party) have continued to tamper with elections throughout the country. The most notable example was the local elections of Michoacan on July 2, where an independent tribunal of respected citizens concluded that the PRI stole at least 14 of the 18 seats in the legislature.

The tactic of the government and the PRI has been to adopt a hard line with the left-of-center opposition and a soft stance with the rightist National Action Party (PAN). Michoacan and Baja California, where a PAN governor was sworn in last week, are the expressions of this “selective” democracy. In exchange for minor changes in electoral legislation, the PAN voted with the official party last month to approve several constitutional amendments that reinforce the one-party system. Cardenas faces a tough dilemma. He can continue to fight for change in the electoral arena, exposing his party and his supporters to the frustrating exercise of one defeat by fraud after another. Or he can adopt new but risky tactics of civil disobedience and boycotts. The government’s message is clear: Either Cardenas, like the PAN, accepts the rules of the old game, or he and his supporters will be increasingly ostracized. The government hopes that if Cardenas does not come back to the fold--that is, to the system controlled by one party--he can be driven to radicalism and his moderate supporters scared away. There is no evidence that Cardenas can be co-opted, but the determination of the government not to change the country’s electoral system could indeed drive voters to frustration and the democratic forces of Mexico into a dark alley of despair.