NEWS ANALYSIS : Euphoric Notion in Europe: Almost Anything Possible

Thursday’s decision by a desperate East German government to throw open its long-locked borders constitutes the latest and most dramatic of a dizzying series of events that in a few months has transformed the political landscape of Europe.

For the continent as a whole, it effectively neutralizes the most horrific symbol of its 40-year division--the Berlin Wall.

Demands to tear down the wall that began with President John F. Kennedy suddenly no longer apply.

East Germans now can walk through it or around it.

Events in East Germany also raise more urgent questions about the prospects of German reunification, the pace of West European unity and the future of the two military alliances that preserved a status quo since 1949 and is now crumbling.

Just as the wall evolved as a powerful symbol of division, so does its demise carry an equally strong message to all Europeans that--suddenly--almost anything is possible.

Those who dream of a continent undivided felt their goal a giant step closer to reality Thursday as they watched another major chunk of the Iron Curtain fall away.

The long-held belief that Moscow would never permit East Germany, the westernmost cornerstone of its empire, to spin out of its orbit seems as dated as the wall itself.

As millions of East Germans paraded through the streets demanding an end to Communist rule, the 350,000 Soviet troops stationed in the country were conspicuous only by their absence from sight.

Few European political analysts believe Czechoslovakia can resist pressures for similar change much longer.

For East German leader Egon Krenz and the Communist leadership that clings to power in East Berlin, the provisional ruling to open the borders is more an act of despair than statesmanship.

It is a gamble that effectively gives East Germans their first free election. Theoretically at least, all 17 million are now free to vote with their feet as have thousands before them under far riskier circumstances.

In a very real way, the volume of those departing in the coming days will determine both the fate of Krenz and the viability of the country he leads.

Even before the hemorrhage of refugees began eight weeks ago, East Germany was a nation critically short of skilled manpower, saddled with an aging population and the world’s lowest birthrate.

The 200,000 or so who have left up to this point may be only 1% of the population, but they are the young, the healthy, and the skilled who are critical to the country’s future.

East Germany has long been the only country in the Soviet Bloc that could boast of some economic success.

If large numbers of its citizens fail to heed pleas from both East and West German leaders to stay and help build a new society, this limited success would be seriously jeopardized.

Such a development would undoubtedly ripple through other hard-pressed East European economies.

For West Germany, as for other members of the Atlantic Alliance, events are moving at an unnerving, yet exhilarating pace. The Alliance’s long-term planners suddenly stare at a set of conditions they believed only a short time ago would take at least another decade to arise.

In West Germany, a mixture of elation and disbelief swept the country Thursday evening as news broke of the new open border policy.

The euphoria that an era of family divisions seemed at an end was tempered by fears that the action would trigger a new wave of refugees.

Before the recent flood of East Germans began, West Germany had absorbed nearly half a million settlers of German extraction from Eastern Europe as a result of relaxed emigration requirements.

While West Germany is the richest nation in the region, it has always been plagued with self-doubt about the fragility of its democracy and its ability to withstand political instability.

“It is in our interest that they stay,” West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl commented.

Thomas Kielinger, editor of the respected newspaper Rheinische Merkur, seemed to speak for many West Germans who see Thursday’s decision as a potential watershed.

“We’re hoping that this is the turning point that will give East Germans the incentive to stay and build their country,” he said.

For those in Western Europe, Thursday’s announcement, coupled with Krenz’s call for free elections, raises other concerns.

It has brought the prospect of a new and closer relationship between the two German states one giant step closer to reality.

Kohl’s words to the West German Parliament on Wednesday that “we have less reason than ever to be resigned to the long-term division of Germany” seemed far truer 24 hours later.

For if the borders remain open and free elections result in a non-Communist government, the very existence of two separate German states comes into question.

Despite Kohl’s protestation that no one need fear a united, democratic Germany, Europeans are unsettled about the possibility of such a powerful entity.

While French President Francois Mitterrand bravely reaffirmed his support for the German right to reunification, many other Europeans privately applaud the words of an earlier Frenchman who said he loved Germany so much that he was happy there were two of them.

Those nurturing the European Community’s dream of economic and political unity worry about West Germany either becoming distracted by events in the east or placing a higher priority on its relations with East Germany than with the community.

Under a French lead, the European Community is already considering accelerating the pace of integration among its 12 member states in order to fill the political vacuum it sees developing in Central Europe.

How a closer relationship between the two German states might affect the EC’s drive toward unity remains unclear.

But in a week that has seen the mass resignation of the East German Communist Party’s Central Committee and its Politburo, the West German chancellor hint at German reunification in a speech before his Parliament, Krenz throw open the country’s borders and call for free elections, all followed by a nod of approval from Moscow, political analysts have little idea what might come next.