Bulgarians Greet Change With Caution, Suspicion : NEWS ANALYSIS

Like news traveling from a distant planet, the world-changing events in Eastern Europe have finally touched this isolated capital at the mountainous center of the Balkan Peninsula, wedged between ancient Macedonia and the Black Sea.

But unlike Berlin, Warsaw and Budapest, where people have exhibited the joy of new-found freedom, the Bulgarians in Sofia have reacted to the dramatic changes in their Eastern Bloc neighbors--and even to the recent surprising shift of leadership in their own country--with characteristic caution, suspicion and even disbelief.

Some people say the 500 years of brutal Turkish rule here during the Ottoman Empire are responsible for the Bulgarians’ reluctance to believe in change. Others say it is simply not in the Bulgarian nature to be optimistic.

“Bulgarians are a passive people,” commented a young biochemist Sunday as he strolled somberly along the paved lanes of Juzen Park, the main gathering place for the small Bulgarian reform movement. “They mistrust what is happening. They had been lied to for more than 40 years (by the Communists), and they have no reason to think things have changed.”

However, Bulgaria, with a population of 9 million mostly ethnic Slavic people, joined what might be called the Gorbachev perestroika (restructuring) club with a bang Friday during a meeting of the Central Committee of the Bulgarian Communist Party in Sofia.

The old Bulgarian war horse, Todor Zhivkov, 78, was out--removed from 35 years of unquestioned power--with only a curt, formal thank you for his “long, selfless, service.” It was a rude exit for Zhivkov, who once told a British journalist that he hoped to live 150 years so that he could continue to rule this history-scarred land bordered by Romania, Greece, Yugoslavia and Turkey.

His replacement, longtime Foreign Minister Petar Mladenov, 53, opened his reign with a speech lauding the virtues of “pluralism in our opinion.” Some members of the Communist Party now contend that Mladenov engineered Zhivkov’s departure by threatening to resign from the 12-member Politburo and publish a letter deeply critical of Zhivkov and his family.

But anyone, including some perplexed Western diplomats here, who expected dancing in the streets or even modest signs of celebration over the end of 35 years of autocratic rule by Zhivkov was sadly disappointed this weekend.

An Italian diplomat, his senses activated by the prospect of political upheaval in dreary Bulgaria, recounted how he kept rushing fruitlessly to the window of his apartment on Saturday at the slightest sound, hoping to see street demonstrations or some other acknowledgement of the end of the Zhivkov rule. Usually, he said, it was only a car backfiring or a dog barking.

“I would have been surprised if there was more of a public reaction,” said Deyan Kiuranov, 38, a leader of the reform-oriented organization Eco-Glasnost. “People in Bulgaria are not used to being involved in party affairs or public affairs.”

The change in leadership was depicted by the official press as a resignation, but most observers feel it was an internal coup d’etat in the Bulgarian Communist Party approved in advance by Moscow.

“The congratulatory telegram from Moscow was strikingly prompt,” smiled Kiuranov.

The cautious reaction by the Bulgarian people to the change in leadership is also reflected in the equally cautious strategies of the reform movement, which is not as broad-based here as it is in Poland or Hungary.

The opposition movement only really surfaced last month during an international environmental meeting, Eco-Forum ‘89, held in Sofia and attended by 35 countries, including representatives of the United States, Canada and France.

At a park near the center of Sofia, the Bulgarian group calling itself Eco-Glasnost set up a protest table. Ostensibly, the table was an effort to gather signatures on a petition opposing the rerouting of two Bulgarian rivers, the Rila and Mesta, by government engineers.

In fact, most people agree that it was an effort to confront the government using the international environmental forum as a protective shield in this country, which has a poor history handling dissent.

City officials first asked Eco-Glasnost to move its table to Juzen (South) Park, which has a reputation as a political tolerance zone. When organizers refused on technical grounds, saying that they had not received a formal order asking them to leave, Sofia police moved in, beating and arresting between 22 and 30 people.

The arrests and beatings angered delegates to the international environmental conference being held at the Peoples House of Culture convention center. Official protests were lodged by 14 countries, including the United States.

Facing potential international embarrassment, the government backed down, permitting a series of legal rallies by Eco-Glasnost and another reform group, the Club for the Support of Perestroika and Glasnost. The club is named for the reform policies of Soviet leader Gorbachev.

Finally, on Nov. 3, Eco-Glasnost led a rally in the city that attracted between 5,000 and 9,000 protesters. The protesters chanted slogans calling for reforms and democracy in Bulgaria. This time the police did not move in. Although the rally lasted only 15 minutes, opposition leaders considered it the biggest challenge to authority here in more than 40 years.

The same cautious approach can be seen in the way the opposition groups are organizing to confront the new Mladenov regime.