The New Germany

In unity there is strength, but division can provide a certain sense of security. That at least has been the post-1945 attitude of most Europeans toward Germany, a nation sundered along administrative and ideological lines at the end of World War II by the victorious but soon bitterly antagonistic Allies. Within NATO and the countries of the European Community, lip service has long been given to the idea of an eventually reunified Germany, a goal whose apparent remoteness made it safe to embrace. But now, as political change rocks East Germany and fuels speculation about the prospects of early reunification, anxious thoughts are being voiced all across Europe.

West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl has recognized and addressed these apprehensions. In a statement made on a visit to Poland this week, Kohl noted that “we don’t live alone in this world. The German problem can only be solved under a European roof.” While describing the division of Germany as “unnatural,” Kohl made clear his awareness that it won’t be up to Germans alone to decide whether the two Germanys can become one. Kohl’s host, Prime Minister Tadeusz Mazowiecki, expanded on his comments. German reunification, he suggested, is “a pan-European problem and (a) problem for the great powers.”

Most Europeans probably agree with that notion. So certainly does the Soviet Union. While not saying never, never, never to an eventual merger between the two Germanys, Moscow has made clear that it considers such a prospect both distant and conditional, one key requisite being the prior liquidation of NATO and the Warsaw Pact military alliances. Most notably, the citizens of East Germany have yet to show any burning enthusiasm for recombining. A lot of political demands have been expressed by East Germans in recent weeks. Restoring national union has not been notable among them.

European concerns about a reunited Germany are both historical and practical, the one deriving from tragic and bitter memories of two devastating wars launched by Germany in this century, the other based on worries about enormous German economic and military power. A single Germany would have a gross national product in excess of $1 trillion, a population of nearly 80 million, the largest European army outside the Soviet Union. Inevitably, its size and level of industrial development raise fears in Europe of German hegemony.

Sober second thoughts are already reining in speculation about early political reunification. If nothing else, it seems clear that the Soviet Union--which still keeps nearly 380,000 troops in East Germany--is a long way from permitting that to happen. A steadily increasing level of economic integration between the two Germanys, however, is almost certain, raising far-reaching questions affecting the European Community as it moves toward becoming a single market in 1992. The community will meet in special session in a few days to ponder some of those questions. One way or another, though, it’s clear that Germany is about to assume an ever more important role in Europe, and in the world economy.