Contras Take Heart From Turmoil : Nicaragua: Rebels in Honduras camp see gains in renewed fighting in El Salvador and the Managua-Salvador split.

Finally, Comandante Jackson had some good news for his troops.

About 200 anti-Sandinista rebels, or Contras, had assembled in a base camp near the Honduras-Nicaragua border here as the commander went over recent developments. He cited the renewed fighting in El Salvador, the rupture in relations between El Salvador and Nicaragua and the clear unlikelihood that the fighters would soon be demobilized.

In short, the entire regional peace process seemed derailed. And, the comandante suggested, it is the Contras who may benefit.

“We are always optimistic, but what is happening now in Central America gives us even more reason to be hopeful,” the officer--known, like others here, only by his nom de guerre --explained afterwards.

In the often whirlwind world of Central America, things can change rapidly, as the up-again, down-again status of the U.S.-sponsored Contras demonstrates. Just a few months ago, the Contra forces were virtually counted out as a viable military and political force in the turbulent region. Denied lethal U.S. aid, low on ammunition and reliant on deteriorating weapons and transport, the Contras, to many, seemed a relic while peace was breaking out in the isthmus.

In fact, after the latest Central American peace accords were signed in the Honduran port of Tela last August, many area policy-makers declared that the remaining questions about the Contras were logistical: how to disarm the rebels and where to put them. The Tela agreements stated that voluntary demobilization of the Contras was to take place by Dec. 5. That date has long been regarded as unrealistic, although it still unnerved the rebel troops, who look upon the regional peace process with considerable distrust.

Now, in the view of Contra leaders and others familiar with the situation, the explosion of violence in El Salvador and its reverberations--notably the break in relations between El Salvador and Nicaragua over the alleged Sandinista arms shipments to Salvadoran rebels--should serve to boost the Contras’ chances for survival, at least until Feb. 25. That is the scheduled date of Nicaraguan national elections.

“They (the Contras) are in a difficult position, but the breakdown of the peace process would seem to give them a little breathing space,” said one Western diplomat in Honduras. “It’s more likely now that the Contras will survive at least until the election; to project beyond that is very difficult.”

Clearly, the Contras’ future is a murky one, largely dependent on decisions in Washington and the region’s capitals. And the resumption of lethal U.S. aid--the Contras’ often stated desire--seems unlike ly. (U.S. humanitarian assistance, including food, clothing and medicine, is due to keep coming in through February.)

But, for the first time in a while, observers say, the rebels’ political position has improved, albeit marginally.

“As warfare continues and spreads in Central America, the Contras have reason to be optimistic,” noted Victor Meza, a Honduran political scientist who heads the independent, Tegucigalpa-based Documentation Center, a think-tank that follows regional issues. “War is the only reason for the Contras being. With peace, the Contras would disappear.”

Here, in the Contra base camp near this tiny border hamlet, there is little real war, but the Contras seem far from disappearing. Although there is dispute about their numbers, the Contras say that they have up to 12,000 troops in uniform in Honduran sanctuary, most of them concentrated in the broad valley of the Yamal River. The Contras say another 6,000 are inside Nicaragua. The group here is by far the largest concentration of rebel forces.

The Contras say they seek peace and justice, rejecting Sandinista charges that they are U.S.-bought-and-paid-for mercenaries. All readily tell tales of alleged Sandinista atrocities, just as officials in Managua recount instances of alleged Contra barbarity.

When journalists visit their virtual state within a nation here, the Contras are quick to talk of their high morale and readiness to continue, even if Washington never comes through with more aid.

“Our battle will go on no matter what happens in the United States,” said Comandante Ruben, 28, during an interview at the plywood shack that serves as command headquarters here. (“The Pope is with us,” declares a prominent poster.) A wounded veteran of the nine-year-old conflict, Ruben is one of five brothers from northern Nicaragua fighting in the resistance.

While such comments are an article of faith, repeated over and over again by the fighters, there is also a palpable sense of bewilderment about U.S. intentions, and concern about what is in store for them. Contra leaders say they have been unable to launch major offensives since U.S. lethal aid was cut off in February, 1988.

The troops here appear to spend much of their time in various training exercises. Many are accompanied by their families, who, like the fighters, live amid the hillside coffee plants and banana trees, sleeping in tin-roofed plywood structures built with U.S. aid. Pigs and chickens wander freely among the heavily armed troops, most of whom appear to be teen-agers.

“It can be a little frustrating,” acknowledged Roberto, 23, who said he had been in the resistance since the age of 16. “We have to hope that it wasn’t all in vain. Many of us have lost our youth to this battle.”

Word of the fighting in El Salvador--and the reports of Nicaraguan arms shipments to the Salvadoran resistance--do seem to have raised expectations. But its exact meaning remains elusive here.

“Maybe the Congress of the United States will decide to help us again with ammunition,” ventured Comandante Ruben, voicing a hope that most say is now remote.

Even as the Contras talk about the possibility of renewed assistance, an international monitoring body is expected to arrive in Honduras this week to begin working out the logistics of the army’s demobilization. The commission, composed of representatives of the United Nations and the Organization of American States, was created by the Tela accords.

Unsettled by the prospects of demobilization, the insurgents here are looking for possible relief from the Nicaraguan elections. Everyone here agrees that the Sandinistas cannot possibly win a fair election, a position disputed by the Nicaraguan government. All Contra troops vow to keep on fighting if Daniel Ortega is reelected president.

Should the Sandinistas retain power, and should demobilization of the Contras occur, fighters interviewed said they could not envision returning to Nicaragua. The United States seemed their preferred destination, although such a massive relocation of ex-combatants and their families remains problematic.

“The United States is the only nation that has the resources to take us,” said Comandante Ruben. Like others though, he stressed his primary desire to return to a “democratic” Nicaragua.

Meantime, uncertainty about the future remains a central theme among the troops, despite regional events that may seem to work in the Contras’ favor. Confided one fighter, “I just hope there is a future for us.”