47% of Residents in Poll Fear O.C. Going Downhill

As Orange County enters the 1990s, residents--weary of traffic, congestion and high-priced housing--are increasingly pessimistic about the future, and one in six entertains thoughts of moving elsewhere, according to the 1989 Orange County Annual Survey.

But while they recognize that the county faces serious problems, residents are resistant to solutions that would most directly affect their lives, said Mark Baldassare, the UC Irvine social ecology professor who directed the survey.

“They do not see themselves as part of the problem,” Baldassare said. “And they don’t see themselves taking an active role in the solution.”

Almost half of those polled--47%, compared to 38% in 1988--said they fear that Orange County will become a worse place to live in the coming years. Just 28% see Orange County improving, while one-fourth of those polled said they do not foresee any change.

The increasingly gloomy view of the county’s future represents a return to a pessimistic trend that began in 1985 but was interrupted last year by more optimistic results, Baldassare said.

The wide-ranging poll--which is paid for by public agencies, private foundations and corporations, including The Times Orange County Edition--surveyed 1,085 adult residents of Orange County from Sept. 6 to 23, and has a 3% margin of error.

One of the main reasons for the current downturn is an increasingly somber view of the county on the part of its wealthiest residents. Last year, 42% of respondents who earn $50,000 or more said the quality of life here was still very good; this year, only 29% of that group saw things in those terms.

“In some ways, this has been the most negative survey,” said Baldassare, who has directed the poll for eight years. “In the past, people said things are going well now, but they won’t go so well in the future. Now, a growing proportion are saying that this isn’t so great right now.”

Still, three out of four respondents said that, in terms of the quality of life in the county, things are going well, while just one in four said they are going badly.

But that margin was higher in past years, Baldassare said. Last year, 35% of those polled said things were going “very well”; this year, only 28% thought that was the case. The number of those who said things are going badly, meanwhile, increased from 15% to 23%.

“This remains one of the most desirable areas in California,” Baldassare said. “However, we’re seeing evidence of Orange County slipping from its position of excellence to being rated as moderately good.”

In two areas--air quality and traffic--respondents expressed concern and frustration. But they also showed an unwillingness to adapt their behavior to help solve those problems, he said. “In both issue areas, people want things done, but . . . they are not willing to make sacrifices themselves.”

Among the survey’s findings:

About one in six residents say they are interested in moving out of Orange County; in 1982, the figure was closer to one in 10. San Diego County was the single most popular out-of-county destination, mentioned by 16% of those with thoughts of leaving; almost two-thirds said they would leave Southern California altogether.

Although air pollution is viewed as a big problem in Orange County, residents here think it is a bigger problem in other parts of Southern California. And while a majority of those polled said they favor clean air “at any cost,” fewer than half support measures that would directly impinge on their life style.

Residents still see traffic (40%) and growth (17%) as the county’s most serious problems. But the percentage of respondents who cite those two problems first has dropped 15 points since 1987, when 72% mentioned them. The number mentioning housing and crime, meanwhile, has doubled in the last two years to 26%.

“I think people are quite perturbed about traffic, but they’re starting to become desensitized to it,” Baldassare said. “Other things are taking their attention.”

Drug abuse is far and away the most serious social ill on residents’ minds. Fifty-four percent of those polled cited it first--up 9 points from last year. Another 14% cited health care as the most serious problem, up from 10% in 1988. Just 12% cited homelessness as the county’s No. 1 social problem, down from 16% in 1988, while those who ranked child care first dropped from 13% in 1988 to 7%.

Eighty-four percent of respondents who commute to work said they do so alone--about the same as the 82% who said they drove solo in the poll’s first year, 1982. Overall, 60% of the poll respondents say their commute has gotten worse. But 69% of South County residents say it is worse, compared to 56% for the rest of the county.

More than half of the poll respondents--52%--favor building new freeways, while 42% support building added lanes. Just 7% said they were satisfied with the current freeway system.

A whopping 59% of respondents--the highest percentage in the survey’s history--said local growth controls are not strict enough. Thirty-five percent said restrictions are “about right,” while 5% said they are too strict.

Surprisingly, residents of central Orange County--Garden Grove, Santa Ana, Tustin and Costa Mesa--were most likely to say that tighter restrictions are needed, with 65% of respondents from those areas taking that position.

Thirty percent of the survey respondents said they regularly volunteer their time to charities--below the national average. The rate of charitable giving, meanwhile, after dropping last year to just 0.4% of median income, returned to the 1987 level of 0.6%--still far below the national average of about 2%. During the same period, median income in the county rose 2% to $45,000, while inflation rose 5%.

Housing payments appear to be leveling off. Half the survey respondents who own their homes make mortgage payments of at least $750 a month; that figure was 49% last year. Similarly, the percentage of renters who pay $750 or more rose just 1 point, to 38%.

The rate of home ownership in the county has remained unchanged since the survey’s inception in 1982. Homeowners make up 65% of Orange County residents.

But 81% of renters hope to own their own homes someday, and 36% say they are “very likely” to buy within the next three years--13% more than were similarly optimistic last year.

The hopefulness among renters is not unexpected, or necessarily false, Baldassare said.

“We’re dealing with a profile of people who tend to be more affluent, more educated; who tend to have things work out their way in their life,” Baldassare said.

Thus, while they see the quality of life in the county deteriorating, residents are optimistic about their own lives. Fifty-six percent said they think they will be better off financially a year from now, compared to 52% last year.

But the same qualities that make them somewhat optimistic in the face of growing urban problems may also make them more stubborn in their opposition to proposed solutions to those problems. It also may help explain their defeat of Measure M, this year’s proposed sales tax measure for transportation, and of last year’s slow-growth measure, Baldassare said.

“It’s harder to tell them what to do,” he said of Orange County residents. “They reject the idea that someone is going to come along and tell them they know how to make things better in their community, whether it’s car-pooling or mowing the lawn.”

SURVEY RESULTS--Most in O.C. want cleaner air, but won’t pay the price. B1

Interest in Moving in percent Interested in moving 1982: 29% 1989: 40% Of those, % that would leave O.C. 1982: 39% 1989: 44% 1989 ORANGE COUNTY ANNUAL SURVEY Responses to other poll questions include:

MOST SERIOUS POLICY PROBLEM

Traffic: 40% Growth: 17% Housing: 14% Crime: 12% Other: 17% MOST SERIOUS SOCIAL PROBLEM Drug Abuse: 54% Health Care: 14% Homeless: 12% Child Care: 7% Other: 13% CHARITY

Listed are the percentages of people giving various amounts of money to charity in past year.

Amount 1989 1988 1987 $100 or Less 29% 39% 28% $101-500 39 38 43 Over $500 32 23 29

Percentage of people who volunteer time to charity.

Yes No Total 30% 70% By Amount of Money Contributed to Charity $100 or less 17 83 $101-500 27 73 Over $500 44 56 By Education Level High School 21 79 Some College 27 73 College Graduate 39 61 By Having Children in the Household No Child 27 73 Have Child 35 65

COMMUTING

Percent of people who say yes to these questions.

1989 1982 Do You Drive Alone? 84% 82% Is Congestion a Problem? 64 53 Has Your Commute Gotten Worse? 60 39

Source: Orange County Annual Survey, UCI