Japan Forecasts Slowing in 1990 Economic Growth

The Japanese government today forecast that the country’s economic expansion will slow in 1990 but that it will still be one of the fastest-growing among major industrial nations.

The economy is forecast to grow 4% in the 1990-91 financial year, which begins next April 1, down from the 4.6% estimated for the current fiscal year.

“A growth rate of 4% will reflect a very stable level of growth, a cruising speed, so to speak,” said Osamu Yasuda, an official from the government’s Economic Planning Agency.

“That is a rate with which we can rest reassured,” he said. “I do not foresee having that high growth pattern we have seen in the past.”

A 4% rate would outpace the estimated rate of economic expansion for the United States in 1990 of around 2.3% and West Germany of 3.2%. The estimates are from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The OECD sees the average gross national product growth for all industrial nations at only 2.9% next year.

Japan has also projected a $78-billion trade surplus for 1990-91, down from an estimated $81 billion this year.

An increase in imports will help trim the surplus, Yasuda said. Japan has a major objective to be a leading importing nation, he added.

Yasuda said Japan plans to revise its tax system to make it more favorable to importers, reduce tariffs on imported goods and further encourage imports through its trade office.

The government sees exports rising 6.2% and imports gaining 10.3%.