Harried Drug Lords Seeking Time to Regroup, Analysts Say : Colombia: Traffickers’ peace overture is seen as a bid for a respite from such actions as extradition to the United States.

Beleaguered Colombian drug lords are suing for peace, but they are unlikely to throw themselves to the mercy of government authorities and courts, analysts say.

Instead, they seem to be seeking an accommodation that will give them respite from official action against them in return for an end to their “narco-terrorist” activities. And high on the list of official action the traffickers are known to hate and fear is extradition to the United States for trial.

In a dramatic declaration this week, the traffickers acknowledged the supremacy of the Colombian government and announced a halt in their campaign of murders, bombings and kidnapings.

Like many Colombians, President Bush expressed skepticism over the declaration, in which the drug lords also promised to suspend cocaine shipments and turn over weapons if they receive “constitutional and legal guarantees.”

The document was delivered Wednesday with the release of a mother and daughter who were kidnaped in mid-December. On Thursday, the traffickers released a third hostage, businessman Roberto Toro, in the city of Medellin.

Toro, who was kidnaped Dec. 14, brought a verbal message from “the Extraditables,” as the traffickers call themselves in public statements.

According to Toro, they said they would free all of their hostages, believed to number about 20. Toro also said they posed a question for the Bush Administration and the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration: “If you do not believe the word of narcotraficantes , why do you negotiate with them, why do you have them testify against other narcotraficantes ?”

The example of plea-bargaining in U.S. drug cases has been used here to rebut official Colombian policy against negotiating a peace settlement with drug traffickers.

The Extraditables have been seeking negotiations with the government of President Virgilio Barco Vargas since he signed an emergency decree Aug. 18 permitting extradition of accused drug traffickers to the United States.

In previous messages, the traffickers have made it clear that the main issue they wish to negotiate is extradition. Barco has refused, and 13 Colombians have been extradited under the August decree. In retaliation for the extraditions and for raids on properties owned by traffickers, they launched a terrorist bombing campaign.

In December, after security forces killed drug lord Gonzalo Rodriguez Gacha in a shoot-out, the traffickers began a campaign of kidnapings. Rodriguez Gacha, one of the three top chieftains of the notorious Medellin cocaine cartel, was wanted by U.S. authorities.

Early this week, two former presidents and the archbishop of Bogota signed an open letter proposing that the traffickers release their hostages and stop dealing cocaine in hopes of “less rigorous treatment” under the law.

The army’s commanding general in Medellin has said the traffickers were consulted on the draft text of the letter through a lawyer. Former President Misael Pastrana, who endorsed but did not sign the letter, said he was consulted on the text by former President Alfonso Lopez Michelsen, who Pastrana says called him from the presidential palace.

Those reports indicate to many analysts that some sort of agreement was being brokered between the traffickers and the government.

Rodrigo Losada, a Colombian political analyst, said he fears that the government may secretly have relented on extradition in exchange for peace with the traffickers. Government officials deny that. Losada said such an agreement could have disastrous consequences for Colombia.

It would be extremely hard to determine whether traffickers were keeping a promise to quit the cocaine business. And even if they did, Losada said, others would quickly move into the lucrative field, so trafficking most likely would continue.

If accused traffickers were not extradited, they would be subject to Colombian justice. But, Losada said, bribes, intimidation and the killing of judges have rendered the court system in this country impotent in cases against important drug traffickers.

The traffickers will not change their corrupt and brutal ways of dealing with the courts, and the judges will continue to be cowed, Losada said. “What judge will have the courage to convict them or even put them on trial?” he asked.

As a result, he said, the power of the traffickers would increase.

“The narcotraficantes would remain in Colombia with their capital,” he said. “Then what could keep them from investing in big companies, taking over banks, buying politicians?”

Meanwhile, Barco may have a compelling personal reason to reach an agreement with the traffickers. One of their hostages is the son of his friend and closest adviser, German Montoya.

But Losada said any official concession could be politically costly for the Barco administration, which now is claiming victory over the traffickers.

“If the government gives in and relinquishes extradition, people will eventually realize that the Extraditables won,” he said.

A U.S. official in Bogota said that because the government now has the upper hand, it is an especially inopportune moment to give the harried traffickers a chance to regroup their forces.

“I think they are under tremendous pressures,” the official said. “Their organization is deeply disrupted.”

And, he said, Colombia should not stop extraditions until it can build “a legal system that has a lot of force and authority, and that is going to take a lot of time.”

The U.S. official acknowledged that willingness to negotiate is a strong Colombian cultural trait.

“There is a very strong perception in Colombian culture that gentlemen are open to negotiations,” he said. “Even with your worst enemy, you are open to negotiations.”

Nevertheless, while the latest peace proposal by the traffickers has raised some hopes for a negotiated end to the plague of “narco-terrorism,” many Colombians remain skeptical and cautious.

The newspaper El Tiempo warned Thursday that “this could turn into a Trojan horse.”