Hopes for Democracy Dim in Haiti : Caribbean: A state of siege is in effect. This has all but spoiled chances of fair elections this year.

Hope for democracy in Haiti has faded to a dim flicker after a harsh crackdown by the country’s provisional military government, Haitian and foreign analysts say.

Lt. Gen. Prosper Avril, the president, used dictatorial powers last weekend to declare a state of siege, impose censorship and persecute political and civic leaders. Dozens have been arrested, some have been severely beaten, and at least five have been deported.

Analysts say the government actions have all but destroyed the possibility that elections scheduled for this year by Avril could be considered free and fair.

“He’s looking like a dictator,” said one foreign diplomat.

“I feel that things are spoiled,” another said. “How can you trust that guy, who imposes a state of siege for no real reason except to enforce his power?”

Avril is now under strong international pressure to end the repression and guarantee open elections. U.S. Ambassador Alvin P. Adams met with the general this week and “made it crystal clear that we deplore and are outraged by what has happened here,” Adams told foreign reporters Wednesday.

“We hope that ways can be found . . . to restore and enhance confidence in the electoral process,” the ambassador said.

But the consensus among other diplomats and Haitian analysts interviewed this week was that any future democratic gesture by Avril probably would lack the credibility needed for unfettered elections.

“I think that at this stage the best solution would be to get Avril out of power,” said a Haitian political scientist. Asked how, he said: “Pray to God.”

On Wednesday afternoon, unconfirmed rumors of an army coup plot against Avril circulated in Port-au-Prince. Some downtown stores closed early as fear of trouble spread, but nothing happened.

Since the state of siege was declared Saturday, the city has been peaceful, with no signs of rebellious military activity. Repression by the army and police was severe over the weekend, however. By one diplomatic tally, security forces detained nearly 80 people, later releasing most of them.

Presidential hopeful Hubert de Ronceray and Gerard Brun, another politician, were among those beaten and deported. Some of the beatings reportedly took place in the white-domed presidential palace where Avril lives and works.

Politicians have gone into hiding, and some who are overseas are unsure of whether they may return. Avril decreed the suspension of several constitutional guarantees, including one ensuring the right of Haitians to return to their country without visas.

He also imposed censorship on radio broadcasts, the main vehicle for news in Haiti. Independent stations suspended all news programs Tuesday because of an official order requiring that news material be submitted to the government for prior approval.

“We can’t work. We can’t say anything,” a radio reporter said. “The threats are getting stronger and stronger.”

The radio news blackout was the most severe since the country was ruled by President Jean-Claude (Baby Doc) Duvalier. On Feb. 7, Haiti will mark the fourth anniversary of the day that ended 29 years of dictatorship by Duvalier and his father, Francois. The son stepped down and fled the country in 1986 after months of popular rebellion against him.

Elections Pledged

Last September, Avril, who had taken power a year earlier, promised elections for 1990. This month, he approved a calendar setting municipal elections for late April, two rounds of legislative elections for July and August, and the first round of presidential elections for October, with a runoff in November.

But signs of authoritarian excess by Avril already have been clear for months. In November, authorities arrested and beat three major political figures, refusing them medical and legal aid for several days.

“It showed that the guy was becoming meaner and meaner,” one diplomat observed.

In November, gunmen with Uzi assault guns killed three partisans of former President Leslie F. Manigat who were posting signs calling for Manigat’s return to power.

Knowledgeable diplomatic sources say hundreds of civilian security agents have been recruited to work with the 1,200-member Presidential Guard, the main fighting unit of the army, since last fall.

Some of the agents, called “attaches,” are former members of the Tontons Macoutes, the brutal political police of the Duvalier regime, the diplomatic sources said.

While Avril was on an official trip to Taiwan this month, opposition politicians issued an unsuccessful call for a general strike and said the general need not return. A group called the Civic Society for the Defense of the Constitution sent a telex to the government of Taiwan saying that any agreements made with the visiting delegation would not be binding on the Haitian people.

The opposition maneuvers and the telex, published in the Taiwanese press, apparently infuriated Avril. To those who sent the telex, Avril said on his return: “You are betraying the Haitian people.”

On Friday morning, unidentified gunmen killed Andre Neptune, an obscure colonel in the Presidential Guard, along with his wife and a servant. The Saturday announcement of the state of siege alluded to that slaying and those of a radio announcer, political party members and some foreign residents and businessmen.

“In view of this escalation of violence, the government, aware of its role as the guardian of public security and peace, will take all appropriate measures to end these destabilizing maneuvers that could compromise the democratic process,” said a communique from the ministers of interior and information.

Most independent analysts say the government crackdown is unnecessary and counterproductive, however. It resulted in a freeze on plans by the United States, Canada and France to begin resuming economic aid to Haiti, the poorest country in the hemisphere. The United States suspended aid after an aborted election in 1987.

No clear reason has emerged for the crackdown, but theories abound. One speculates that it resulted from army infighting over graft and payoffs that military men are known to receive in return for their loyalty to the government. Neptune, the colonel killed Friday, is said to have been in charge of distributing cash and privileges to members of the presidential guard.

Another says that Avril simply moved to consolidate his powers.