SOUTH AFRICA THE AGENDA : Compromises Blacks Must Make : If negotiations fail, conflict will be uncontrollable. The country will be isolated, impoverished--a typical African state.

Since President Frederik W. de Klerk’s speech Feb. 2 at the opening of Parliament, South Africa’s political development has definitely shifted toward a new process.

This new process means a number of things: recognition by the government of the African National Congress as a prominent representative of the black people; an irrevocable commitment by the government to negotiations for a new constitution; the removal of obstacles to negotiations, which will soon receive attention (the total lifting of the state of emergency and release of political detainees still imprisoned); general voting rights in a unitary state, and the disappearance of all discriminatory laws.

There is a positive expectation that the ANC will be prepared to enter into negotiations. They are obviously very careful, attempting to avoid being perceived as moderate, which could estrange them from their power base. I expect considerable negative rhetoric by the ANC about negotiations. Everything, however, will move toward a negotiation table, which will hopefully become official in 1991.

The agenda for the negotiation process will basically involve five matters:

Group rights. The race-group classification of the National Party must be abolished and replaced by a one-man one-vote system. On the other hand, the ANC must cease its rejection of group rights. In addition to the Charter of Human Rights, group rights must be secured in other ways.

Democracy. The view expressed by black people (one-party systems, absolute state authority, drastic restrictions) is unacceptable. They will have to compromise.

State form. The ANC wants a unitary state, whites a decentralized federation or Swiss canton system. A compromise is essential.

Economic system. The two poles are the capitalist free-market system as opposed to the Marxist-socialist system. Despite the failures of socialism in Eastern Europe and Southern Africa, the majority of black people believe in socialism. We know that this will mean the economic and political downfall of South Africa. We must try to negotiate a compromise on a kind of mixed economy. A free-market form, however, must dominate. To accomplish this, serious negotiation is essential.

Transition time. Whites are focused more on process politics and gradual change. Within this framework, the phasing in of the post-apartheid era and the phasing out of the apartheid era will take about 10 years. Black politicians are far more impatient. They want to complete the post-apartheid phase by 1992. It is obvious that a compromise must also be reached here.

Will we ever reach this compromise? We have no other option. It will, however, take time.

The possibilities of compromise are promoted by the following factors: The decline of communism and socialism in Eastern Europe; pressure from the East, the West and Africa on the ANC and the South African government to compromise; peace initiatives in Southern Africa (Angola, Mozambique and Namibia), and the economic realities of South Africa, which force all groups to search for political solutions.

The fact that blacks and whites are too deeply embroiled in ideologies is not conducive to compromises. Our politics have not yet become sufficiently sober and pragmatic.

The Conservative Party, which represents 30% of the white votes, is fanning white emotions. This could give rise to outbursts of white terrorism.

I expect that 1990 will be a very tense year in South Africa, for whites as well as non-whites: a period of demonstrations, violence, aggressive rhetoric, polarization and confrontation. This, however, will be the prelude to negotiation.

If negotiations succeed, a new South Africa may well be a state with one Parliament and government representing all the people; a state with a constitution that provides checks and balances for minority groups that are not racial minorities, but political minorities formed into political parties by free association; a state with a free-market economy with adequate measures for the elevation and incorporation of the black masses; a state that is a non-racial democracy, based on the values of Western democracy.

If negotiations fail, the conflict will become uncontrollable. The country will become isolated and impoverished and experience the suffering of a typical African state.

The mobilization of all international and national influences to ensure successful negotiation is therefore a matter of life and death.