ANALYSIS : Politics, Economic Realities Fuel Rush to German Unity

A potent mix of political and economic imperatives is driving the rush toward German unity at a pace far faster than expected.

In part, speed is considered vital to underpin an increasingly unstable East Germany, beset with widespread public anxiety about the future and an economy some believe is on the verge of collapse.

Uncertainty about the very basics of life--jobs, homes and savings--seems to grow steadily, stoking anxieties and fueling an exodus that still runs at between 2,000 and 3,000 people per day.

The German word angst --anxiety and depression--punctuates nearly every conversation.

“There’s a certain panic in the belly,” admitted Horst Moritz, an official at the East German Academy of Sciences here. “You are afraid if you don’t leave now, it (West Germany) could be full if you wait.”

For Moritz, who says he will stay, and others, only reunification can restore some semblance of security and stability.

A weak, discredited East German caretaker government, unable to counter this mood, appears to have little choice but to be dragged along by events. West Germany’s political leaders also argue that key elements of reunification, such as a union of the two currencies, are needed immediately both to ease East Germany’s collective public angst and rescue its economy.

Swift action would also help stem the westward flow of refugees, which has already topped 100,000 this year and placed new strains on West Germany’s sensitive social fabric.

On Friday, officials in Bonn reported that 2,000 more East Germans had given up on their country and emigrated westward during the previous 24 hours.

“There’s a widespread belief that once you accept the idea of reunification, the quicker you do it, the faster you stop the rot,” said a political analyst in Bonn. “It’s simply not sustainable to have 2,000-3,000 refugees coming in daily.”

To that end, the West and East German governments agreed to set up a joint committee this week to work out a monetary union; the Western allies persuaded the Soviet Union to accept a process for dealing with the security and external issues of reunification; and on Friday, West German officials in Bonn gave every sign that they are moving speedily with planning for reunification.

The governors of West Germany’s 11 lander, or states, met to discuss how a united Germany would be administered. In a rare show of unity among leaders split roughly equally between the Christian Democratic Union’s ruling coalition and the opposition Social Democratic Party, they agreed unanimously to pursue a 16-state federal structure for a reunited Germany. What is now East Germany would be divided into five states along the borders of the traditional regions, Brandenburg, Mecklenburg, Sachsen, Sachsen-Anhalt and Thueringen.

Lothar Spaeth, the conservative governor of Baden-Wuerttemberg state, also appealed to East Germans to speed the process by simply adopting West German laws and regulations.

And West German Defense Minister Gerhard Stoltenberg said that his ministry is drafting a security concept for a united Germany. He said that a cornerstone of the plan would be membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a concept the Soviet Union opposes.

The rush to reunify is also driven by powerful domestic political considerations for West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, who faces a general election this year. To move quickly and decisively on the issue would permit Kohl to present himself to an electorate as the architect and father of German unity.

Indeed, the prospect of a conference of European nations planned for later this year endorsing a Kohl-designed program for reunification would be difficult for the opposition Social Democrats to counter, political observers in West Germany believe.

(Ironically, however, East Germany’s predominantly northern, Protestant, population would make it far more difficult for Kohl’s Roman Catholic-based Christian Democrats to prevail in a national election. The respected Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung noted Friday that Kohl could suffer a fate similar to that of Britain’s Winston Churchill, who rescued his country from defeat in World War II, only to be dumped by the electorate within months of the victory.)

But above all, what drives the fast-accelerating pace toward unity is the shattered emotional state of East Germany’s 16 million people, who began their trauma last November with a certain pride that they had won a revolution only to learn the extent of the lie they had lived for 40 years.

Cynical, corrupt leaders who had promised a brave new world, instead gave them a society that has been revealed to be as bankrupt morally as it was politically and economically.

“All the values that anchored society went out the window,” summed up a Western diplomat.

Unlike other newly freed East European countries, East Germans stare daily westward and measure the extent of their loss. They have not only lost confidence in their government but also fear the loss of what little they now possess in comparison with their rich Western cousins.

In the industrial town of Bitterfeld, 20 miles north of Leipzig, a kind of collective low-grade depression has settled, adding to the already oppressive Dickensian grayness of the landscape.

The head of the regional health authority, Dr. Horst Fugener, speaks with a fierce pride that his staff has persevered under conditions he calls terrible. But he admits that the recent loss of three of the town’s seven dentists and the departure of three of five anesthesiologists from the neighboring town of Wolfen has been a blow.

It borders on black humor that in a town concerned about pollution-related disease, the deputy health inspector in charge of collecting pollution data also recently fled.

“I guess he didn’t like what he discovered,” joked the town’s deputy mayor, Edegard Kauf.

Outside the local bank, worried residents, braving sleet and drizzle, stood in line for hours Thursday to break up their savings accounts after rumors circulated that large savers would suffer under terms of a currency union now under discussion.

Elsewhere, those who have lived for years in homes long since confiscated by the Communist authorities from owners who had fled to the West mull the prospect of massive rent increases and even eviction if the landlords return.

Remarks by Kohl on Thursday to the West German Parliament that “our compatriots in East Germany can count on our solidarity” failed to penetrate the gloom.

“Everyone is nervous,” explained Bitterfeld’s deputy mayor Kauf. “They are worried about their savings, their jobs and their homes. They are worried we will be buried if we have to compete in a free market.”

There is reason for concern.

Much of the aging chemical complex that is Bitterfeld’s biggest employer as well as its biggest polluter hasn’t had a kind look since the 1920s, and few expect it can either survive in a competitive world or be attractive enough for a Western company to buy.

At the local office of the regional newspaper, Freedom, secretary Lilo Schaundel spoke of computerized Western newsrooms, pointed to the old typewriters in front of her and said with exasperation, “For us, there’s no such thing as a computer. We haven’t any idea how one works. We don’t have the education or the skills to compete.”

West German economists have estimated that between 1 million and 3 million East Germans could become jobless in the wake of a currency union.

But such worries are only part of East Germany’s underlying instability. With the government in near paralysis, a society that was shaped only to take orders from above suddenly has no one else to turn to.

Unlike Poland, with its Solidarity union, or Czechoslovakia with its Civic Forum, East Germany has no political opposition capable of winning public support. Communist reformers with acknowledged expertise, such as those who helped Hungary along a steady and orderly path toward political pluralism, were here all but swept away by the speed of the revolution.

Politically astute dissidents, such as those who quickly emerged to lead Czechoslovakia to freedom, had long since been weeded out by the Communist authorities and sent to West Germany.

“It’s led to a feeling of helplessness,” a Western diplomat here commented.

Only recently have West Germany’s established political parties tried to fill this leadership vacuum.

The shock for East Germans seeing first hand the extent of West Germany’s material wealth has been numbing, despite the hints provided through years of watching West German television.

“We saw the pictures on TV, but when we got there and saw how they lived . . ., “ said Kauf, her voice trailing off, before adding with a sense of disbelief, “ . . . and they are also German.”

The lure of this West German success coupled with the disintegration of their own society and the values it stood for add to the East Germans’ push for unity.

Those who question the speed of reunification, get little sympathy.

“We’ve waited 40 years for this,” commented Hans Hildebrandt, chief surgeon at Bitterfeld’s general hospital. “I don’t think that’s fast at all.”