Contras’ Campaign Tactics Could Boost Sandinistas

Humberto Jiron is, by his own account, an undecided voter, an independent farmer without a party. He reads three newspapers a day trying to make up his mind. He is also a community service organizer and president of his polling precinct for Nicaragua’s Feb. 25 election.

He is the kind of citizen, it seems, whose vote would be courted with care by the Sandinista government and its opponents.

So he was somewhat astonished when 15 armed Contras called at his home on the outskirts of this provincial capital last month and threatened to kill him if he did not vote for the United Nicaraguan Opposition. When he protested that “my vote is secret,” they vowed to return after the election to slit his throat.

The incursion, which ended with the rebels hijacking a truck and spreading anti-Sandinista leaflets through the town, underscores the vulnerability of the opposition alliance, known as UNO, on the most emotional issue of the election--the continuing Contra war.

President Daniel Ortega, noting UNO’s reliance on official American support, has lashed the alliance with the U.S.-backed guerrillas as “two mercenary forces at the service of North American policy . . . both responsible for crimes against the Nicaraguan people.”

UNO, whose leaders include former Contras, has denounced all violence without taking a categorical stand against the insurgency. Its presidential candidate, Violeta Barrios de Chamorro, stresses national reconciliation while trying to focus debate on Nicaragua’s wrecked economy.

But her strategy is often undermined by the Contras. Ignoring advice from the Bush Administration, rebels roaming in rural areas mix crude electoral appeals with armed attacks on Sandinistas and forced recruitment of young men.

The rebel mission to Jinotega last month was apparently a search for weapons. The Contras seized several rifles from a home described as a hunting club and stole a radio-cassette player. They also gave pro-UNO lectures to people suspected of being Sandinistas.

Jiron, still puzzled by the intrusion and uncertain how he will vote, said the incident heightened suspicion about UNO’s Contra connection.

“I told (the Contras) that if they are campaigning for UNO, they will probably have the opposite effect,” he said. “But they did not come to have a dialogue. They are fanatics. . . . I know it’s absurd to think that (Chamorro) sent them, but people wonder.”

That impression seems widespread. A survey of 971 voters last month by the Washington polling firm Greenberg-Lake showed that 56% have a negative opinion of the Contras and 67% believe UNO is too close to the Contras. The poll gave Ortega a wide lead over Chamorro.

The Contra issue is potent because nearly 30,000 people have died in eight years of fighting. And while a fair election is viewed as the best hope for ending the conflict, the campaign itself is shadowed by violence.

Witness for Peace, a Washington-based monitoring group, has documented 38 Contra attacks on Sandinista activists or poll watchers since August. Leaders of UNO say 84 of its more than 2,000 candidates for legislative and municipal office have quit the race under harassment by Sandinistas, who accuse them of siding with the Contras.

A U.N. observer mission reported this month that the election campaign is generally fair but expressed concern about intimidation by both sides.

Politicians in both camps agree that the Sandinistas benefit most from the unsettled climate.

“The Contra campaign has hurt Violeta,” said Jose Gabriel Moya, a Nicaraguan pollster who conducts surveys for the opposition. “UNO has not clarified its position on the Contras, and the Sandinistas have taken advantage of that.”

Six months ago, Ortega hoped to seek reelection as the man who brought peace to his country. He was frustrated when the Contras resisted a call by Central American presidents in August to disband before the vote. Armed rebels stepped up infiltration into Nicaragua from their bases in Honduras, prompting Ortega to end a 19-month-old cease-fire on Nov. 1.

UNO immediately blamed Ortega for escalating the war. Its view was shared by many foreign diplomats, who thought he was taking a risk that could undermine the election.

Now Ortega’s move is seen by many of the same diplomats as an effective election strategy to distract attention from his economic failures. The Contras, meanwhile, have taken on much of the onus of the renewed fighting by killing two Roman Catholic nuns, one an American, in a Jan. 1 ambush.

Chamorro’s campaign manager, Antonio Lacayo, said he has tried without success to get stronger statements from the 14-party coalition against Contra attacks.

“I know that the polls say the Contras are unpopular, but there are people in UNO who won’t accept that and don’t believe in polls,” he said.

Alfredo Cesar, a former Contra civilian leader who returned to help run Chamorro’s campaign, said the Contras are a no-win issue for her.

“Anything we say against (the Contras) is going to be minimized by the Sandinista media,” Cesar said. “What they want is for us to say that the whole war was illegal, and we won’t do that.”

UNO’s ambivalence shows on the campaign trail. Luis Adan Fley, a former rebel commander back from exile, is telling crowds that he put down his weapons to fight the Sandinistas “in a civilized way.” But he is quick to add that, if the election does not work, “we will have another 100 years of war because there are people in the mountains who will not give up their rifles.”

UNO spokesman Luis Sanchez said: “It’s not in our hands to stop the armed campaign of the Contras or that of the Sandinistas. If we’re seeking peace through reconciliation, we can’t identify one side as the enemy.”

A U.S. official said the Bush Administration has urged the Contras to lower their profile so as not to give the Sandinistas a pretext to disrupt the elections.

The Contras’ military commander, Israel Galeano, has promised international observer groups to refrain from offensive operations but not to stop “campaigning” for Chamorro. He has told them that such activity is needed to keep the Sandinistas from intimidating UNO voters.

“When I told him that Contra activity was hurting the UNO campaign, he looked at me as if I were from another planet,” said an American observer who met recently with Galeano.

Times staff writer Doyle McManus contributed to this report.