Looking Back to the Future
Predicting the future is a hazardous business at best, but the 1980s proved especially resistant to the peering of prognosticators. Compounding the difficulty was a volatile oil market and a Federal Reserve Board newly determined to use tight money and high interest rates as weapons against inflation. Here’s a collection of forecasts published from December, 1979, to January, 1980:
Inflation: “From 1981 through 1985 will be boom years beyond belief with rampant inflation . . . probably near the 20% mark.”
-- Chase R. Revel, editor and publisher of Los Angeles-based Entrepreneur Magazine.
What Happened: The early part of the decade saw a short, sharp recession and inflation rates in the Los Angeles-Orange County region that plummeted from 16.3% in 1980 to 0.8% in 1983.
WATER SUPPLIES: “The extreme conservationists give in to the economic realities of population demand and acquiesce in development of the Peripheral Canal to bring water from Northern to Southern California”.
--by the editors of Orange County Illustrated.
What Happened: Voters defeated the Peripheral Canal in a referendum vote in 1982. Water supplies, while not plentiful, remained adequate despite annual rainfall totals of less than 10 inches in five of the past six years.
FREEWAY CONSTRUCTION: Completion of the Corona del Mar Freeway to Jamboree Road by 1985, and starting in 1988, work begins on extending the route to Bonita Canyon via the San Joaquin Corridor Road.
--the editors of Orange County Illustrated.
What Happened: Half credit. As predicted, the freeway was extended to Jamboree Road by 1985; however, the San Joaquin Corridor extension was swept up in the campaign to build privately funded toll roads in the county.
GASOLINE PRICES: Gasoline prices rise to $2 a gallon, and Southern California becomes a national prototype for what solar power can do when it gets off the idea list and into the . . . mainstream.”
--Michele Willens, California Journal
What Happened: After peaking at an average of $1.29 per gallon for all grades in 1981, prices fell as low as 88 cents per gallon in 1988--equal to 28 cents per gallon in pre-oil crisis 1970 dollars.
NUCLEAR POWER: The generating station at San Onofre brings its fourth and fifth reactors on-line in 1990 after a string of brownouts in the late ‘80s.
--by the editors of Orange County Illustrated.
What Happened: Concerns about the safety of nuclear power, an oil glut and stepped-up conservation efforts doomed plans for the fourth and fifth reactors. Unit 1 was built in 1969; Unit 2 went on-line in 1983, and Unit 3 in 1984. Electrical supplies were more than adequate throughout the decade.
THE AIRPORT: “John Wayne Airport is named Orange County Airport again.”
--by the editors of Orange County Illustrated.
What Happened: Not on your life, pilgrim.
THE GOVERNOR: Jerry Brown, after losing two major elections, re-registers as a Republican and marries a nice Catholic girl, 15 or 20 years younger than he.”
--Martin Smith, Sacramento-based political editor for McClatchy Newspapers.
What Happened: Half credit. Brown lost the governor’s race to George Deukmejian in 1982 and the U.S. Senate race to Pete Wilson in 1986.
THE ANGELS: An Angel pennant in 1981.
--by the editors of Orange County Illustrated.
What Happened: No joy in Mudville. Angels came within one strike of a pennant in 1986, but a 9th-inning home run turned the tide for the Red Sox.
