O.C. Housing Market 4th Least Affordable in U.S., Study Shows : Real estate: A nationwide survey indicates that in Orange County, it takes 51% of a household’s median income to meet the average mortgage payment. In San Francisco, it takes 54%.
Orange County was the fourth least-affordable housing market in the nation late last year.
That estimate is based on a study by the Prudential Real Estate Affiliates Inc., a chain of real estate brokerages based in Costa Mesa, and Wharton Econometrics Forecasting Associates. The study contrasted median household income with average monthly mortgage payments.
The study found that it took 51.5% of a household’s median income to make the average monthly mortgage payment in Orange County, which has some of the highest prices for single-family homes in the nation. (In February, it was $243,285, according to the California Assn. of Realtors.)
Traditionally, a buyer can’t even qualify for a mortgage if the payment takes more than 28% of his or her monthly income.
Of the nation’s 150-largest housing markets, homeowners in 97 markets could buy a home for less than 28% of their monthly income.
The Northeast and the West continue to be the least-affordable markets. San Francisco led all markets with an average monthly mortgage payment that required 54.1% of a household’s median income.
The New Bedford-Fall River, Mass., area was second with 53.5%; Honolulu third with 52.5%; Santa Rosa fifth with 50%; and San Diego sixth with 46.5%.
Peoria, Ill., was the most affordable market in the nation. An average mortgage required only 8.8% of a household’s income.
Most of the California markets, including Orange County, have booming economies and rising incomes, which mean a lot of competition for housing and the resulting high prices. Even a slowdown in home sales hasn’t brought down prices much.
But New Bedford-Fall River, of all the markets at the top of the list, has a much different and less enviable problem: It has relatively high home prices and low household incomes, about $31,000 at last count. By contrast, it’s nearly $54,000 in Orange County.
New Bedford started out as a whaling port in the Colonial days of the 17th Century. Fall River, 12 miles inland, is a product of the 19th-Century’s Industrial Revolution. Both have long been in decline. New Bedford was hurt by the falling fortunes of New England’s fishing industry. Fall River was abandoned by many of the textile mills at the turn of the century, which moved to the South in search of cheaper labor.
The area’s unemployment, usually around 7%, just hit a seasonal high of 11%, highest in Massachusetts. Thousands of poor immigrants--traditionally, many are Portuguese--work in low-wage garment shops or on construction crews.
Still, even these blue-collar industrial towns weren’t immune to the increase in home prices as New England’s economy boomed in the early 1980s.
“There were very high expectations for growth in the high-tech industries, in defense industries and in services,” said Steve Cochran, an economist with the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. “Incomes were growing and people were willing to bid up home prices.
“The problem is that computers and defense are hurting now, and only the service industries are still growing.”
But that hasn’t brought home prices down much, even in Fall River. Prices are lower here than in Boston--and they took quite a tumble last year--but they’re still high enough to startle most people in Peoria. The average single-family house, according to the local multiple listings, costs $138,747.
“People aren’t forced to sell, so they’re sticking to their price and holding on to their houses,” said Louis Andrade, a Century 21 broker in Fall River. “It means prices haven’t come down all that much.”
Both towns have brought in some new factories by pitching their land costs, wages and rents, all of which are lower than much of the rest of Massachusetts.
Despite the new factories with their better wages, “it still usually takes two paychecks to put a deal for a house together,” said Edward Lavoie, another Century 21 broker in Fall River. “This is a real blue-collar area, and incomes aren’t anywhere near what they are in Boston.”
Still, Fall River and New Bedford residents can take comfort in the fact that home prices are still lower than much of the rest of New England and far lower than in California.
“Yeah, we’re nowhere near San Francisco or that other really expensive area you have out there,” said Lavoie, “Orange County.”
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
Here are the most and least affordable of the top 150 U.S. markets. Affordability rankings are based on the percentage of an average family’s gross monthly income needed to make payments on an average-priced house in the area after a 20% down payment.
MOST AFFORDABLE
Pct. of Avg. Rank Area Income Price 1. Peoria, Ill. 8.8 $41,152 2. Omaha 13.0 75,840 3. Des Moines, Iowa 13.8 69,379 4. Oklahoma City 14.9 73,010 5. McAllen-Edinburg, Tex. 15.4 55,665
LEAST AFFORDABLE
Pct. of Avg. Rank Area Income Price 150. San Francisco 54.1 $362,245 149. New Bedford-Fall River, Mass. 53.5 186,135 148 Honolulu 52.5 344,711 147. Anaheim-Santa Ana 51.5 331,964 146. Santa Rosa 50.0 214,688 145. San Diego 46.5 235,900 144. Riverside-San Bernardino 46.2 168,995
Source: Prudential Real Estate Affiliates
