Baltic Crisis Imperils East-West Ties : Diplomacy: At risk is progress on global arms reduction. The ‘whole peace process’ could be affected.

Western European analysts expressed fears Tuesday that East-West relations would suffer a severe setback if the Soviet Union uses force in Lithuania to quell popular support for independence.

There is little, if anything, Western nations can do to respond to Lithuanian President Vytautas Landsbergis’ appeal for help, diplomats said, beyond urging Moscow to use restraint in the crisis in the Baltic republic.

The rumble of Soviet tanks in the capital of Vilnius stirred memories of Moscow’s invasion of Budapest in 1956 and Prague in 1968, when the West did not respond militarily. The whole rapid movement toward detente between the Soviet Union and the West could be reversed if Soviet troops open fire in Lithuania, according to sources in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, London and Bonn.

One analyst in the West German capital declared the Lithuanian situation had “loads of implications” and that it could mean that the “Soviet threat was coming back.”

And a Bonn diplomat declared: “It’s a very tricky situation, and we haven’t made up our minds about what to do--other than calling for a peaceful dialogue.”

Many strategic specialists believe that the major victim of the Soviets’ use of force in Lithuania would be arms reduction, goals being pursued now in talks about conventional weapons in Vienna, and about strategic nuclear and chemical weapons in Geneva.

The collapse of detente could also slow down progress toward German unification as well as the independence movements in Warsaw Pact nations, some sources suggested.

“Such a Soviet move could hurt the whole Western peace process,” commented Col. Andrew Duncan of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. “It would vastly aid those people who have never been keen on disarmament. It could probably make the Germans more eager to remain in NATO after unity.”

Voices in the United States have been louder in support of the Lithuania position--its Parliament voted a unilateral declaration of independence March 11--than in most Western European nations.

However, a meeting of Western European foreign ministers in Lisbon, led by Scandinavians who called for greater autonomy for Baltic states, appealed to the Soviet Union to resist using its troops in Lithuania. On Tuesday, Norwegian Prime Minister Jan P. Syse called Moscow’s parading of tanks and its order to confiscate Lithuanians’ firearms “a shockingly unwise step,” and the storming of two hospitals by Soviet paratroopers to seize Lithuanian deserters from the Red Army “brutal.”

“Continued use of power will not solve any problems, but can seriously jeopardize the results recently achieved in East-West relations,” Syse said in a statement.

Lech Walesa, the leader of Poland’s Solidarity labor movement, wrote to Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev, accusing him of “violating the sovereignty of Lithuania” and urging that force not be used.

And in Ottawa, Canadian External Affairs Minister Joe Clark called in a senior official of the Soviet Embassy to express concern over the military activity in Lithuania and warn him that the Soviet actions could impair relations with Canada. But some diplomats in European capitals believe that Lithuanian President Landsbergis has acted rashly in pushing for immediate independence, rather than negotiating with Moscow step by step.

Former British diplomat George Walden, writing in the London Daily Telegraph, argued that the Lithuanians had chosen an inappropriate time to make life difficult for Gorbachev, and could in effect endanger the whole move toward greater freedom and local autonomy in the Soviet Union.

In Brussels, a senior NATO official expressed “disquiet” about the Baltic situation but said NATO continues to accept Kremlin assurances that force will not be used. He pointed out that West European countries could not recognize Lithuania’s independence because, while it was forcibly incorporated into the Soviet Union in 1940, the country did not have control over its affairs--its defense, borders, currency and other national attributes.

“Simply announcing independence isn’t enough,” the official said.

Swedish Foreign Minister Sten Sture Andersson, in an interview Tuesday with the Swedish news agency TT, said, “Sweden considers that the Soviet leadership is behaving responsibly toward Lithuania and in accordance with international agreements regarding the territory.”

He argued that under the 1975 Helsinki accords on European security and cooperation, changes in frontiers must be negotiated.

The British and West German governments have taken a wait-and-see attitude, quietly urging Moscow to use restraint, believing that provocative public statements will help neither Gorbachev nor the Baltic republics.