Moscow Has Bad START II Jitters

Suddenly the two superpowers are stumbling again over arms-control numbers. Last month President Bush proposed a ban on land-based mobile missiles with more than one warhead. Then Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev sent word to Washington last week that he could not bargain away the only big missiles he is able to hide and leave America’s submarines free to prowl the seas with multiple-warhead missiles.

The START II impasse arises out of two very different military traditions. The Soviet Union has always viewed intercontinental missiles much like very big artillery pieces. Because artillery is based on land, most of the Soviet nuclear force is based on land. The U.S. deployment pattern is markedly different because the Air Force and the Navy are competing for a piece of the nuclear action. The latest proposals of the first START treaty would leave only about 10% of U.S. warheads based on land, with the rest deployed on bombers or in subs. Under the same plan, Moscow would have more land-based missiles than any other kind.

Each generation of submarine missiles is more accurate than the last and today’s super subs are no easier to find than they ever were. This is a potent deterrent to a surprise Soviet attack because it would leave the entire sub force available to retaliate. Searching for a similar sense of security, the Soviets have begun deploying missiles that can be moved around and hidden on land almost as effectively as submarines are at sea. But Trident subs can also be first-strike weapons because their new missiles are so accurate they could cripple Soviet missiles in their silos. This is what Moscow cannot accept.

Despite the fresh climate in Europe and the Soviet Union, Moscow is not going to jump at an offer that has a clear bias in Washington’s favor. If we want to ban multi-warhead land-based missiles because that would favor America, we will have to give something to Moscow in return. That much about arms control negotiations is not about to change.

SUBMARINE NUKES

Number of nuclear warheads on U.S. and U.S.S.R. nuclear submarine fleets: Soviet Union: 3,632 United States: 5,024 Source: Arms Control Assn.