It Can Be the Giant at the Tip of the Continent : South Africa: But if the white minority lets the chance go by to forge a model of multiracial cooperation, the nation’s ruin could be the result.

There are, at last, real prospects of fundamental change in South Africa, and that means majority rule.

This can be stated with confidence, after the many wasted apartheid years. Yet the tortuous process of getting there poses huge perils for both the white minority and the black majority.

Exactly how the new South Africa will emerge from the current maneuvering and confusion is still unclear. But the two most prominent leaders of the whites and the blacks are now tugging together to open the first musty pages of a new book.

Indeed, Nelson R. Mandela of the African National Party and Frederik W. de Klerk of the ruling white National Party (both now touring world capitals) have embarked on a historic relationship--the outcome of which neither can be sure of. In the spirit of their successful preliminary discussions last week, they appear to have agreed, tacitly, to govern the country together for the time being. The have cooperated in matters as divergent as security management, a crippling nurses’ strike and setting conditions for the release of political prisoners. More joint efforts will surely follow.

There is an air of expectation--a mixture of hope and fear--that underscores the pioneering process taking place between white rulers and black ruled.

Returning here from an extended visit abroad, this writer has found real evidence of change. There are outward signs: seeing the ANC “tricolor” (green, yellow and black) widely on display; hearing Mandela’s voice at a press conference in that apartheid “holy of holies,” the H.F. Verwoerd Building in Cape Town, named after the fanatical premier who codified segregation and in 1960 banned the ANC; top communists walking freely in the streets, their sayings and writings unshackled by government. An ominous new sign is the warlike preparations being made by the white right wing for its “last stand” against the new order. They speak of a “third Boer War,” this time not against the British Empire but against fellow Afrikaners.

Perhaps the most important difference is psychological. The blacks--who number about 75% of the population--have a sense of being on the winning side, as never before. And whites are realizing the stark choice they face: repressing blacks or joining with them in a new South Africa. Roughly half the whites would probably favor the former course; the other half (in varying degrees) the latter. The struggle in the white community promises to be turbulent--indeed, violent.

What now? There is an early prospect of an interim government, whether formal or informal, representing at least the ANC and the National Party. If Mandela and De Klerk go ahead with this, they will risk being accused in their own constituencies of dealing with the enemy and “selling out.” But both appear to be determined to find answers instead of problems.

This interim government could pave the way for a free vote among all adult South Africans on their future. That will conclusively reveal how strong the different white and black group are. At present it is a matter of surmise.

Whatever happens, there will be rapid Africanization of posts in the public service and elsewhere; some worried white observers fear inefficiency and hyperinflation leading to economic chaos--and a flight of whites--if this is done without due regard for competence, training or experience as majority rule approaches.

The question is what sort of majority rule: The mixture of repression, corruption and economic stagnation found in parts of Africa or the emergence of a tolerant, stable, generous giant at the tip of the continent, a model for multiracial communities the world over? In an advanced, industrialized country like South Africa, the latter prospect has the edge. But the caliber of leadership of both whites and blacks--and the economic model chosen--will be decisive. The leadership is there; and, on the economic front, a system somewhere between capitalism and socialism seems the most likely option.

Dangers and uncertainties notwithstanding, South Africa is, finally, grappling with its destiny. With people of the standing and dignity of Nelson Mandela around, this is the best time for whites to settle. If they miss this chance, they could run themselves and their country to ruin--helped by the black radicals who would inevitably triumph.