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The Rise in Revolutions of the Young

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PETER D. MOORE <i> is a managing partner of Inferential Focus, a market-intelligence firm based in New York</i>

The major sociopolitical upheavals that changed the face of Eastern Europe and resulted in military repression in China are sprouting up in other parts of the globe. Central to those upheavals was the clash between a large student-aged population seeking workplace opportunities and authoritarian regimes unwilling to change the economic status quo.

The new upheavals are surfacing not only in countries with repressive governments, but also in industrial democracies. Youth-inspired eruptions from below continue to force responses from above. Some leaders have listened and changed, but some have responded with greater shows of force, perhaps simply delaying another confrontation.

- TAIWAN: In March, 6,000 students and thousands of onlookers crowded Chiang Kai Shek Memorial Park in Taipei to demand greater democracy. It was the first large-scale political demonstration originating in the university in 40 years of Nationalist Party rule. “All in all,” summarized one government official, “people are asking for greater reform at a faster pace. They want more democracy, more decision-making power in affairs of state.” The students ended their lengthy vigil only after President Lee Teng-hui agreed to meet with them to discuss their demands.

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- HUNGARY: Before elections in March, one new party, the Young Democrats, attracted large crowds in Budapest, primarily because they claimed their membership, being mostly under 30, was too young to be linked to abuses attributed to the fallen government. Of the 27 parties in the election, the Young Democrats, many of whom were said to be too young to vote, finished fifth, winning 21 seats in the new parliament.

- ALGERIA: Sixty percent of Algeria’s population is less than 25. For Africa overall, half are younger than 15. While youths in Algeria have yet to form an independent political voice (the country has 22 parties), their economic problems are the primary force behind general political unrest. Not enough jobs exist for those already of working age and, with many more youth coming of age, pressure on the industrial and commercial sectors will increase precipitously. The June 12 elections will be a barometer of the country’s rising social discontent.

- NEPAL: Beginning in February, student-led protests forced King Birendra to send government troops into the streets to quell disturbances. Protesters called for an end to royal control and the beginnings of democratic reform. After five weeks of strikes and protests, the king offered a compromise, but the protesters rejected it. The king eventually bowed to the pressure and lifted a 3O-year ban on political activity, opening the floodgates to political parties, elections and opposition speeches in public.

Many protesters in one part of the world actually gain strength for their struggles from news reports of similar struggles elsewhere. The Nepalese, for example, gained momentum in their battle with the royal family from stories about youth protests in other parts of Asia and in Eastern Europe. That type of linkage makes the concept of a worldwide generation gap even more apropos. Further evidence of a developing global youth gap comes from Western industrialized countries, which have recently experienced unusual rumblings from the young.

- ENGLAND: Of the 330 people arrested during the London poll tax riots, 70% were between 17 and 25, part of what one social scientist called “a growing stratum of the dispossessed.” The demonstrations sought to make a public statement in opposition to the regressive tax passed by Parliament to pay for local services. As a result of the protests, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher has told her finance minister to come up with a replacement for the tax.

- UNITED STATES: The young generation faces daunting economic realities. Only half of college-age youth are headed for college. Eighty-two percent of those 20 to 24 are in the work force, but most are underemployed in part-time or low-paying jobs. Between 1973 and 1986, families headed by 20- to 24-year-olds experienced a 27% drop in income, a decline equal to that suffered during the Great Depression. According to a study commissioned by the William T. Grant Foundation, youths 16 to 24 can expect to earn an average of 25% less in their lifetimes than the generation 10 years ahead of them.

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Some U.S. youth have responded to this dimming economic picture by establishing new priorities--for example, trying to focus more on happiness than material wealth. Others have taken to the streets and, like those who harbored the free-floating anger that precipitated the London riots, they represent a constant threat to social order.

Unlike the generation gap of the 1960s and 1970s, which focused on political issues, the gap of the 1990s revolves around economic and cultural issues. The new worldwide generation gap reveals the large spread between those inside the system and those who would enter it in the near future. In some countries, protesting youths call for fundamental changes in the way institutions operate. In some Western democracies, youth protests reflect alienation from the institutional process and the first stage of what could be more violent conflicts ahead. Opportunities for the younger generation may be more difficult in an era of shrinking economic potential. Battles over the environment, entitlements and military spending may need to make some room for another topic: the new generation gap and its economic needs.

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