NEWS ANALYSIS : Canadian Pact Falling Apart as Public Balks

Less than two weeks ago, Prime Minister Brian Mulroney could argue that he had it all sewn up: The political elite of the country had signed a constitutional deal that would avert the threatened breakup of English- and French-speaking Canada.

No more.

In a remarkable political upset, public opinion has swept Mulroney’s arduously crafted plans into complete disarray. The constitutional deal that looked like a juggernaut just one week ago now looks as though it will die Saturday.

Oddly, the seemingly mortal blows have been dealt by obscure figures in Manitoba and Newfoundland, have-not provinces that don’t often make it into the national news headlines.

Analysts have been predicting that if Mulroney’s constitutional accord fails, Quebec will take steps toward restructuring its relationship with English-speaking Canada, perhaps even toward independence.

There are also predictions that the damage to Mulroney will be profound. Even before this week, his standing in the polls was painfully low, and the events of the last few days have shown just how determined he can be to ram his ideas through, regardless of public opinion.

“The trust of Canadians in their leaders has been ruptured,” said Christopher Dunn, a political scientist at Memorial University here in St. John’s.

Already, a member of Mulroney’s Progressive Conservative caucus quit last week over the prime minister’s constitutional management, bringing to six the number of Tories who have either left or been kicked out of the party in recent months. Although Mulroney’s constitutional package may yet be saved--the past few weeks have already brought a number of big political surprises--more Tories may jump ship, depending on what happens over the next few days and weeks.

“If Meech doesn’t pass, he’s shagged,” fisherman Don Stanford said of Mulroney.

“Meech” is shorthand for the now-notorious Meech Lake Accord, a package of constitutional amendments that were written in 1987 to give greater powers to Canada’s 10 provinces, and in particular to the French-speaking province of Quebec.

The accord started out as an innocuous effort to persuade Quebec to sign the national constitution, which it hasn’t done so far. But over the three years since the accord was drafted, it has evolved into a political Frankenstein, frightening some Canadians into thinking that the country will fall apart if it is ratified, and others into believing the country will fall apart if it isn’t.

Two weeks ago, Mulroney launched an all-out effort to silence the opposition to the accord and to persuade all 10 provincial premiers to ratify the amendments. If the amendments aren’t unanimously ratified by Saturday, the accord will become null. Mulroney called the 10 premiers to Ottawa, the national capital, and essentially closeted them in a conference center until they agreed to sign. Even then, Manitoba and Newfoundland held out as long as they could.

The secrecy of the meetings annoyed many Canadians, but when the talks were over, Mulroney declared victory. He and the 10 exhausted premiers held an emotional accord-signing ceremony in Ottawa, making speeches about national unity in an auditorium draped with colorful provincial flags.

It was a triumphant moment, but only a moment. As soon as the premiers of Newfoundland and Manitoba went back to their respective capitals--St. John’s and Winnipeg--saying they would put the accord to a vote in their legislatures, new trouble erupted.

In Winnipeg, the trouble took the unexpected form of Elijah Harper, a quiet Indian chief and the only native Canadian member of the Manitoba legislature.

Two weeks ago, Harper was virtually unknown outside of his own impoverished district. He cuts a humble figure, his long black hair clipped in an austere ponytail, his shoulders slumped, a beaded lanyard hanging at his neck. When he makes television appearances, he seems unable to look straight into the camera and instead gazes bashfully at the floor. In the legislature, he clutches an eagle feather for moral support.

But when his fellow legislators tried to introduce the Meech Lake Accord for debate and ratification, Harper launched a one-man procedural battle that has held up all discussion for nearly a week. Thanks to his effort, it now looks certain that Manitoba will miss the ratification deadline.

Harper’s motivation comes from the general feeling among native Canadians that the Meech Lake Accord assumes that French and Englishmen, not natives, are the nation’s founding fathers. Native Canadians are convinced, with some justification, that the drafters simply forgot all about aboriginal people when they wrote the pact.

Harper is a Cree, but he has won the support of numerous other tribes in Canada. When he appears in the legislature, Indians congregate outside, beating thunderously on ceremonial drums.

The federal government has tried to condemn Harper as a lone meddler holding up a vital process for the nation. But it is a hard argument to swallow. In addition to the accolades of fellow Indians, Harper has won widespread support and admiration from white, English-speaking Canadians who have long opposed the accord for their own reasons but couldn’t figure out what to do about it. When Harper walks in or out of the legislature, he receives applause, cheers and slaps on the back from white strangers.

The sudden burst of sympathy from people who never showed much concern for the Indian point of view in the past has surprised and touched Harper, who sometimes has tears in his eyes when he quietly makes his simple public remarks.

The federal government earlier this week rushed an envoy to the prairie province to meet with an assembly of native chiefs and offer them various goodies if they would back down. The Indians listened, then said no.

In Newfoundland, on the other hand, Manitoba’s Indian uprising has delighted legislators who themselves face a vote Friday on whether to ratify the accord. Many legislators here have wanted to vote against the accord but are afraid of going down in history as the ones who single-handedly drove Quebec out of the confederation. Harper’s activities have taken some of the pressure off them.

Some analysts even think that if it is a sympathetic Indian chief who blocks the accord, rather than a body of English-speaking politicians, Quebec won’t be able to react as harshly.

“I don’t say they won’t be furious, but they won’t be as furious,” said Dunn of Memorial University.

While events play out in Manitoba, the 52 members of Newfoundland’s House of Assembly have been frantically canvassing their constituents, asking them whether they should vote yes or no for the accord. Here in Newfoundland, as in Manitoba, the answer is generally no.

In Newfoundland, the central objection isn’t native rights but the feeling that special constitutional powers given to Quebec would elevate French Canadians unfairly above the rest of the nation. Quebecers argue that they need such special powers because as French speakers they represent a threatened minority group. But Newfoundlanders aren’t buying it.

“That’s what we are condemning South Africa for--trying to protect the Boer society,” said Angela Sullivan, who came to an open house thrown by her member of the legislature in a school gym. She pointed out that Canada imposes economic sanctions on South Africa while trying to elevate a minority group above all others.

“You can’t have it both ways,” she said.

Newfoundlanders have been convinced by past experience that Quebec is a dirty dealer that doesn’t need any more power than it already has.

Back in the 1960s, when Newfoundland wanted to harness the hydroelectric power of a mighty waterfall on its Churchill River, Quebec refused to let the Atlantic coast province build transmission lines over its territory. Without the transmission lines, Newfoundland couldn’t deliver the power to markets in southern Ontario and the United States. So Newfoundland negotiated to sell its power to Quebec over 65 years at a fixed price; Quebec could then resell it farther south.

Soon after the document was signed, energy prices soared and Newfoundlanders found themselves locked into a deal that gave Quebecers the power at a tiny fraction of its market price. Today, Newfoundland’s hydro-power pours hundreds of millions of dollars a year into Quebec’s coffers.

Newfoundlanders haven’t forgotten this and are urging members of their legislature not to forget it either when they vote this Friday.

“Seems like if the French don’t get their own way, they just bitch,” fisherman Bob Morris told his representative, Shannie Duff, when she came to visit him and his fellow crewmen in a shack above their small wharf Tuesday.

“The Newfoundlanders never get nothing,” agreed his friend, Don Stanford.

“Let Meech die,” said Morris.

NEXT STEP

The Meech Lake Accord, a package of constitutional amendments giving greater powers to Canada’s provinces and in particular to French-speaking Quebec, must be ratified by all 10 provinces by Saturday or it becomes null. In Newfoundland, where sentiment is strong against the accord in general and Quebec in particular, the legislature is scheduled to vote Friday. In Manitoba, an “Indian uprising” seems certain to delay a ratification vote beyond the deadline.