Some Inroads Made in War on Poverty, World Bank Says : Development: But the progress eluded parts of Africa, and 1.1 billion people still live on less than $370 a year.

Most of the world is winning the war against poverty, ignorance and illness, and the number of people can be further reduced by the end of the century with adequate economic policies, the World Bank says.

It said only one major region--Sub-Saharan Africa--risks a degradation of its economic and social conditions in the 1990s.

Despite “tremendous” progress the past three decades, 1.1 billion people in developing countries--one out of four--still live on less than $370 a year, World Bank President Barber B. Conable said.

The bank’s annual report, “World Development 1990--Poverty,” said per-capita consumption in developing countries rose by 67% between 1965 and 1985, life expectancy lengthened to 62 years from 51 and primary school enrollment rose to 84% from 73.

Progress was uneven, with the greatest gains in East Asia. Yet even in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where consumption per capita stagnated during the period, life expectancy and primary enrollment rates improved.

Moreover, the 1980s--often called a “lost decade for the poor”--did not reverse the overall trend of progress.

“The incomes of most of the world’s poor went on rising, and under-5 (years of age) mortality, primary school enrollment ratios and other social indicators also continued to improve,” the study said.

The setbacks of the 1980s occurred in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, where poverty increased. In Latin America, however, overall social conditions did not deteriorate as much as the fall in income would have suggested, the bank noted.

Conable contended that, with adequate economic policies, the number of poor could be slashed by 300 million by the end of the century.

“This is no pipe dream,” he said, adding that over the past few decades there were spectacular victories in the war against poverty in countries as diverse as Colombia, Indonesia, Chile and Botswana.

In Indonesia, the proportion of poor was reduced to 20% from 60% in the past 25 years.

Conable warned, nevertheless, that although the number of poor could be reduced by 400 million in Asia, their numbers could swell by 100 million in Sub-Saharan Africa because of slow growth in income and high population growth.

He said countries that reduced poverty did so with a two-part strategy. The first promoted using the poor’s most abundant asset, labor, through policies that harness market incentives, social and political institutions, infrastructure and technology. The second aimed at providing basic social services to the poor--health care, family planning, nutrition and education.

The World Bank voiced optimism on prospects for the global economy for the 1990s, except for Sub-Saharan Africa.

It projected that industrial economies will achieve a 3% annual growth, commodity prices will dip in the short term but gain an average 0.2% per year, and real interest rates will fall to between 3% and 4% from almost 5.5% in the 1980s.

The number of poor in Latin America is expected to remain the same as the region’s economy advances by 4.2% per year through the end of the century, with a 2.3% per-capita output gain. If the region achieved better income distribution, the number of poor could fall by 20%.

For Sub-Saharan countries, the projected annual economic growth rate is 3.7%, but high population growth may reduce the per-capita gain to 0.5%.

In contrast, South Asian nations will increase output at a 5.1% annual rate, a per-capita hike of 3.2%. India’s economy will expand at a 5.2% annual clip, a 3.4% per-capita advance.

East Asian countries will all but wipe out poverty, with an economic growth rate of 6.6% per year and a per-capita advance of 5.1%. China’s economy will expand by 6.8% a year in the 1990s, down from 10.1% in the 1980s, with a per-capita gain of 5.4%.

For Eastern Europe, the bank cautioned, the outlook is cloudy. Economic reforms and anti-inflationary measures will depress growth for a while, even with generous external assistance. Annual output expansion in the 1990s could average 1.9%, for a 1.5% per-capita gain.

In the Middle East, North Africa and developing countries of Europe, economic expansion is projected at a 4.3% annual clip, for a 2.1% per-capita gain.

The World Bank and its affiliates, the principal source of financing for developing nations, lend over $20 billion a year for economic structural reforms and development projects.