Hot Weather Threatens City’s Voluntary Water-Saving Program

In an apparent affirmation of San Diego’s voluntary water-conservation program, San Diegans used an average of 12.3% less water than expected during June and July, according to figures released Wednesday by the city’s Water Utilities Department.

But, when analyzed month by month, the figures indicate that, as summer temperatures rise, San Diegans are struggling to meet the San Diego County Water Authority’s goal of 10% savings.

The figures show that, in June, when San Diego got more rainfall than any June on record, San Diegans managed to decrease their consumption about 16%, as compared to projected water use based on a five-year average that has been adjusted to reflect population growth. But, in July, when city residents sweated through 24 days of above-normal temperatures, they also turned up their taps, barely reaching the 10% savings goal.

City water officials Wednesday discounted the tapering off in water savings, saying the cumulative totals, not the monthly tallies, are what is important.

“One month might be high and the other might be low, but, as a city, it’s important for everyone to go for the 10% goal cumulatively over the summer and try to maintain the reservoirs,” said Marsi Steirer, a city water conservation analyst. “I think we have the momentum going in the city, and we need to continue it forward.”

But weather officials said that this month, traditionally the year’s hottest, promises to put San Diegans’ restraint to the test.

“If you think it has been tough, wait until August and September,” said Wilbur Shigehara, a forecaster for the National Weather Service, who says this summer is the hottest since 1985. “During the past four years, we’ve had a respite. Although it’s been very dry . . . the use of water in San Diego has (not) come to the forefront. But now, I think we’ve got a problem.”

Earlier this year, after the county water authority called for mandatory water-reduction measures, Mayor Maureen O’Connor led the fight against such restrictions, saying San Diegans’ “civic-mindedness” would make a 60-day voluntary savings program work.

And, last week, as the two-month trial was about to expire, O’Connor hailed the program as a success and announced an extension of the citywide effort. But, with Southern California in its fourth straight year of drought, some remain critical of O’Connor’s voluntary plan, pointing to 23 cities and water districts in San Diego County that have adopted mandatory water restrictions.

“Certainly the necessity for conserving water is a permanent situation. We can’t treat it like a two-month P.R. job,” said San Diego City Councilman Bob Filner, who supports mandatory conservation and was the only council member to vote against O’Connor’s voluntary program in May. “We’ve got to permanently change habits, and that’s going to take more than public service announcements. That’s going to take stronger action.”

Filner also said he was “suspicious” of the method the city uses to calculate savings. The city compares current water use not to 1989 figures but to figures derived by averaging water use totals for the past five years and then factoring in increases due to population growth. Expected daily usage in June, for example, was 248 million gallons; July was 265 million and August is 266 million.

“Whatever figure you set that at, lower or higher, affects the savings results,” Filner said. “It’s not a real figure. Its a projection. We need a better explanation why this method is being used. Are we trying to prove the case through the figures as opposed to changing habits?”

Steirer, the city analyst, defended the use of projections to measure savings, saying that, because weather and water use fluctuate from year to year, comparing 1990 figures to a five-year average is more telling than comparing them to 1989 figures. She said that, although it is possible to determine 1989 figures, she did not have them available Wednesday.

“This is a reasonable approach,” she said.

Steirer supported her contention that water conservation is “catching on” in San Diego by noting that thousands of San Diegans have called the city’s water hot line since the voluntary effort began. In June, she said, 4,350 people called (619) 239-0132, or an average of 145 calls a day. Most callers requested information about conservation. But 600 called that month to report instances of water waste, a “radical jump” from 1989, when an average of 160 tattlers called each month.

A Los Angeles Times poll conducted in July supports her claim--and showed that San Diegans are not eager for mandatory cutbacks. The poll found that 61% of San Diegans said they are using less water now than a year ago, 31% said their water use is unchanged and 5% said use is higher than in 1989.

Two-thirds of the San Diegans interviewed recognize that the city faces a severe water shortage. Despite that belief, however, 69% of city residents oppose mandatory restrictions.