All of the Rules Have Suddenly Changed in the Lands of Araby : No longer is there a vision of pan-Arabism, and the U.S. won’t be kept at arm’s length, to be played against the Soviets.

When Iraq’s troops smashed into Kuwait, they shattered all the rules that have governed the Arab world for decades. Events are now rewriting these regulations in a way that will govern the region’s politics--and U.S. involvement there--for years to come. Like Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev’s transformation of the Soviet Union, the Middle East’s speedy mutations are making many old ideas casualties of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein’s aggression:

--The Pan-Arab nationalist idea, that all Arabs belong to one brotherly nation, is gone. Arab states’ political and economic systems, distinct histories, ideologies, and geopolitical considerations make them too different. By ignoring the Arab world’s feelings and acting unilaterally, Saddam Hussein showed himself an Iraqi, not an Arab, nationalist; by accepting U.S. troops, Saudi Arabia’s rulers acted as Saudi nationalists.

--Gulf Arab appeasement is deceased, after an epoch when the oil-rich monarchies of the Persian Gulf survived by pandering to and subsidizing their powerful, radical neighbors--Iraq, Iran, Syria. As long as Baghdad threatened them, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait were willing to give him many billions of dollars. By actually doing its worst, however, Baghdad removed any incentive to surrender to extortion. They concluded, as Europe did after Hitler invaded Poland, that appeasement could not save them.

--The Soviet Union’s superpower status in the region, which gave radical regimes an alternative to U.S. support, is departed. The Arab states and Iran are well aware that the United States is the world’s only superpower and those wishing to prosper must have good relations with Washington. In this context, any other U.S. policies, including American support for Israel, have no effect on Arab decision-making.

--The principle that Arab states would not invite non-Arab forces to defend them is no more. This rule was bent when Kuwait reflagged its tankers with Stars and Stripes during the Iran-Iraq war and when Lebanese Christians asked Israel’s help in their country’s civil war. In the new era, such miscegenist alliances will be even more acceptable. There will be few demonstrations, outside Iraq, cheering Saddam Hussein as a victim of Western imperialism. This is the judgment of such experts on Arab public opinion as Saudi Arabia, which invited U.S. troops, and Egypt, which is taking such a strong stand against Iraq.

If anyone views America as a paper tiger, this attitude should also be laid to rest. Middle Easterners have tended to overestimate U.S. power, seeing its conspiracies behind everything and expecting that it is able to solve problems everywhere. Yet, periodically, local dictators become convinced otherwise. For instance, the Ayatollah Khomeini briefly persuaded Iranians during the hostage crisis that the United States was bluffing. Saddam Hussein made the mistake of acting on the same kind of assumption, but President Bush’s forceful actions are proving Hussein dead wrong.

--The popular knee-jerk response that the Arab-Israel conflict is the cause of all Middle East strife should be extinct. Arab regimes put their own interests first, tending to neglect or try to dominate the PLO. Not only does the Persian Gulf crisis put the issue on the back burner--as happened during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war--but the PLO is returning to a radical policy. Renewal of a U.S.-PLO dialogue is far off and there is no real conflict between U.S.-Israel and U.S.-Arab alliances. In the longer run, it may be far easier to negotiate peace between Israel and its neighbors.

These developments have major implications for U.S. policy. Without Soviet help (and fearful of Iraq), Syria may think of turning toward the West. With Iraq threatening to take control of the gulf, Iran may reconsider its isolating extremism.

President Carter’s doctrine guaranteed the Persian Gulf from outside (Soviet) invasion. President Reagan’s doctrine guaranteed Saudi Arabia against internal radical upheaval, refusing, he said, to let it become another Iran. Now President Bush adds that the United States will defend the gulf from a local aggressor.

The United States is becoming the leader in an international framework of peace and security. Thanks to changes in the Middle East, it is also playing a leading role in establishing a new structure for preventing regional conflicts.