SCIENCE / TRACKING TYPHOONS : Weathermen Want Storms to Eye <i> Them</i>

Russell Elsberry is hoping for a little stormy weather.

In fact, at least half a dozen typhoons would be nice.

Elsberry, a meteorologist with the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif., is technical director of the most comprehensive meteorological experiment ever carried out in the Western Pacific. For two months, until the end of September, ships, aircraft and scientists from 12 nations will spread across the Pacific from Malaysia and the Philippines to the Aleutian Islands.

Their purpose will be to study every element of every typhoon that forms in that stormy region, and Elsberry, who will coordinate the project from Guam, hopes they will have plenty of chances.

THE GOAL: Elsberry and his team hope that their data will help scientists better predict the exact course and strength of typhoons and hurricanes around the world.

“Our goal is no more than a 50-mile error at 24 hours,” Elsberry said. That means that, at any given moment, the typhoon should be within 50 miles of wherever the scientists had said it would be 24 hours earlier. He hopes the error will be no more than 100 miles at 48 hours and 150 miles at 72 hours.

That’s not an easy goal, he said, because, when a typhoon reaches mid-latitudes, where it could hit major U.S. military bases and population centers throughout Japan and the Philippines, “the storm can move 400 miles in 24 hours.”

And “a hundred-mile error means millions of dollars (in damages) per mile” if the storm hits where no one expected it, he said.

“We’re mainly trying to improve the 48- to 72-hour forecast,” Elsberry said, “because that’s when you’ve got to move aircraft and ships” to get them out of harm’s way before the storm strikes.

THE PROBLEMS: Every typhoon that develops in the area is to be tracked by aircraft that fly through its eye, by ships that remain a safe distance from the storm center and by satellites that will monitor its moisture content and its direction.

Satellites alone cannot do the job. Sometimes the top of a storm will sheer off and move in one direction while the lower part rips along the surface in a different direction. The satellite tracks the upper part, because the clouds at higher altitudes are cooler and show up more strongly in infrared data collected by the orbiting spacecraft.

Thus, it is possible for forecasters to wake up in the morning after following satellite data all evening and find their storm 200 or 300 miles away from where they thought it would be.

The project will use seven ships--four Soviet vessels, which mainly will study water temperatures and other oceanographic features, plus two from Japan and one from the United States. Research aircraft will include a National Aeronautics and Space Administration DC-8 that is a veteran of many storms and has even flown through parts of the ozone hole in the atmosphere, a U.S. Air Force C-130 that will fly through the eye of the typhoons and a Soviet research plane.

At least 100 people in the United States alone will take part, including 25 scientists.

“It has turned into an enormous experiment,” Elsberry said. U.S. participation is expected to cost around $5 million.

THE OUTLOOK: “My biggest nightmare is if we gave a typhoon party and no typhoons showed up,” Elsberry said. But he does not expect to be disappointed.

“The Western Pacific has the greatest number of typhoons in the world,” he said. “It’s the best place in the world to do this study. Half the typhoons in the world form there.”

During the 60 days of the study, “we hope to get eight typhoons,” he added. Data from the research project will be pumped into the National Meteorological Center’s supercomputer in Washington, and it will be available to all nations.