The New Japan Can, and Must, Say ‘No’ to Iraq : Pacific power: It must assume larger political responsibility commensurate with its economic clout.

Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu’s last-minute decision to postpone his trip to the Middle East illustrates Japan’s dilemma in its search of a larger role in world affairs. While desiring to live up to a rising expectation of Japan’s larger contribution to the world community, Tokyo chose, out of a growing sense of uncertainty, to maintain Japan’s traditional style of defensive, low-profile diplomacy.

The flood of coverage of the crisis in the Persian Gulf eclipsed the publicity of his long-planned trip, helping him escape criticism for calling off the trip. Yet, as other Western allies moved to consolidate their united front against Iraq by deploying forces in the gulf, Kaifu’s postponement leaves the impression that Japan is lagging behind the global boycott of Iraq. By taking a cautious, low-profile course of action, the Japanese leader has squandered an opportunity to show his nation’s readiness to play a responsible role in the world community.

The Japanese government’s official reason for the postponement was that it needed time to come up with concrete measures, while Japanese diplomats expressed concern that the trip would appear to be a desperate oil-buying expedition. Preoccupied with hedging risks accompanying the trip, Japanese officials seem unaware that Japan’s inaction--or slow action--in responding to the crisis would promote its negative image of a “free-rider” seeking its own narrow economic interest.

That negative image may be further reinforced by Japan’s heavy dependence on Middle East oil, and more significantly, its inability to make a military contribution to the international embargo against Iraq. Japan’s constitution, which bans the use of force as a means to settle disputes, will no doubt become more irritating in the eyes of its allies. Defensive diplomacy in the present crisis would demonstrate all the more clearly that Japan’s economy is dependent on its allies’ military protection.

In the wake of the Iraqi invasion the Japanese government joined the United States and other Western nations in condemning it, freezing Kuwaiti assets, banning the import of Iraqi oil and suspending economic aid to Baghdad. Its decision to impose a trade embargo, which came prior the U.N. Security Council’s resolution has been hailed as evidence of Japan’s willingness to assume larger political responsibility more commensurate with its economic and financial power.

Compared to the oil crises in the ‘70s, this time Tokyo was better prepared and is able to absorb the economic and financial impact. Yet a prolonged crisis and Iraq’s fait accompli would mean a daunting dilemma for Japan. While realizing the importance of maintaining economic sanctions against Iraq, Tokyo’s heavy dependence on Middle East oil and huge investments in the region will increasingly entice the Japanese government to accommodate and rebuild rapport with the Iraqi leader.

In the face of such skepticism, Kaifu’s trip to Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and Oman could have provided a tremendous opportunity for Japan to play a constructive role in the crisis. He could have strengthened his hosts’ position through an unfaltering pledge of Japan’s political support as well as an early assurance of its commitment to provide economic assistance to ease difficulties resulting from economic sanctions against Iraq. While pressing Baghdad to withdraw from Kuwait, it is particularly important that the Japanese leader shore up the neighboring countries and encourage them to stand firm against Iraqi intimidation.

President Bush’s request to Kaifu this week to boost Japanese economic aid to countries affected by the embargo against Iraq, is a timely reminder of the expectation for Japan, which is still debating how to make contributions to resolving the crisis.

In Kaifu’s place, Foreign Minister Taro Nakayama will begin a five-nation tour on Friday. Nakayama must show Japan’s resolve not to tolerate Iraq’s blatant power politics and flagrant challenge to the international order. He should be articulate in making it understood that Japan is determined to continue economic warfare against Iraq unless it withdraws from Kuwait and abandons its militant policy. Thereby, Japan can support moderate Arab leaders, send a clear signal to Saddam Hussein and spearhead worldwide economic sanctions against Iraq.

As a longtime victim of volatile Middle East politics, Japanese officials are well aware that they can ill afford Hussein’s control of oil in the region and the consequent greater influence therein. They have learned from bitter experience that this will lead to constant instability in the region.

No Japanese consumer desires to pay more for helping Saddam Hussein write off the unpaid bill for his personal war with Iran or his huge purchases of “outlaw” weapons. They would rather boycott Iraqi oil and pay more to peace-loving oil producers. Japanese businessmen are fed up with Hussein’s incorrigible adventurism, which has already cost them billions of dollars in damages and unpaid foreign debt.

By standing firm against Iraq’s act of aggression, Foreign Minister Nakayama must show that “Japan can say no” and that it should be counted.