Gulf Watch: Day 24

A daily briefing paper on developments in the crisis:

Diplomatic Front: U.N. Secretary General Javier Perez de Cuellar invited Iraqi Foreign Minister Tarik Aziz to participate in emergency talks to resolve the crisis in the Persian Gulf. He said the talks could begin as soon as Monday in New York or Geneva.

President Bush scored a diplomatic coup with approval by the U.N. Security Council of a resolution authorizing military action to enforce the international trade sanctions against Iraq. The vote was 13 to 0, with Yemen and Cuba abstaining.

The lights went out and the water was cut off at the U.S. Embassy in Kuwait, but Iraq’s ambassador in Washington said his government would not use force to oust Ambassador W. Nathaniel Howell and the other diplomats who defied the order to close the compound.

Iraq promised to free about 60 wives and dependents of U.S. diplomats who left the U.S. Embassy before Friday’s deadline. But it continued to hold the 30 or so male embassy personnel who evacuated with their families to Baghdad expecting to be given safe passage to Turkey. At least 20 other countries refused to close their embassies in Kuwait. Military Front: Pentagon sources said the United States was not likely to begin firing at ships that attempt to evade the blockade until today at the earliest. They indicated that the delay reflects logistic considerations, not a lack of resolve to enforce the embargo.

Units of the 48th Tactical Fighter Wing based at Lakenheath in Britain were deployed to support the military buildup in Saudi Arabia. Trade Front: The international embargo appears to be taking hold in Iraq. There were reports from Baghdad of panic buying, efforts to create a national rationing system and house-to-house searches for food stockpiles by armed militiarymen.

A divided OPEC will meet today in Vienna to consider possible production increases to offset the loss of about 4 million barrels a day of crude oil exports from Iraq and Kuwait. Insiders say the 13-member cartel is far from united on the issue. Crisis Indicators: *Iraqi troops in Kuwait: 160,000 *Iraqi tanks in Kuwait: 1,000 *U.S. troops on the ground: 40,000 *U.S. troops en route: 60,000 *U.S. sailors aboard ship in region: 35,000 *U.S. ships in the region or en route: 70 *U.S. reservists to be mobilized: up to 49,703 *U.S. aircraft in region: 500 *U.S. diplomats and dependents held in Iraq: 100 *Other Americans detained in Iraq and Kuwait: 56 *U.S. diplomats remaining in Kuwait: 10 *Total Americans in Iraq and Kuwait: 3,000 *Total Westerners in Iraq and Kuwait: 13,000