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U.S. Trade Deficit Hits 6-Year Low : Economy: The good news is tempered by prospects of growing imbalances fueled by the Persian Gulf crisis.

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From Associated Press

The deficit in the broadest measure of U.S. trade totaled $21.84 billion from April through June as the United States closed out the first half of the year with the lowest six-month trade deficit in six years, the government reported today.

The Commerce Department said the second-quarter deficit was up a small 0.8% from a first-quarter deficit of $21.67 billion, the lowest such imbalance since the first quarter of 1985.

The deficit for the first two quarters, at $43.5 billion, was the lowest six-month total since a $32.6-billion imbalance from the fourth quarter of 1983 to the first quarter of 1984.

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However, economists are predicting that this could be the best trade news for the United States for some time to come. They are forecasting a sharp worsening in the deficit in the current quarter, reflecting a jump in world oil prices caused by the Persian Gulf crisis.

Today’s report on the current account is the most closely watched trade statistic because it measures not only trade in merchandise but also trade in services and investment flows between countries.

In the first quarter, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed a sharp 14.1%, to $22.6 billion, its lowest level in 6 1/2 years, reflecting a big drop in oil sales and a record level for U.S. export sales.

The surplus in the services account, which reflects such categories as tourism and payments for services including legal fees to American firms, totaled $6.08 billion, up 1.3% from the first quarter.

However, these improvements were offset by the fact that the investment category moved into deficit for the first time in a year. The deficit in the second quarter was $637 million, compared to a surplus of $2.0 billion in the first quarter.

The other category in the current account, unilateral transfers such as foreign aid and pension payments to Americans living overseas, showed a deficit of $4.71 billion in the second quarter, 39% larger than in the first quarter.

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Even with the strong improvement in the first six months of the year, the United States is starting the 1990s in a far different position than it did the 1980s.

A decade ago, America was the largest creditor nation. It ran surpluses in its current account, as the earnings on its overseas investments were enough to offset perennial deficits in merchandise trade.

But as Americans handed over billions of dollars to foreigners for imported cars and televisions, the investment cushion eroded. It disappeared altogether in 1985, when the United States became a net debtor for the first time in 71 years.

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