GULF WATCH: Day 53 : A daily briefing paper on developments in the crisis.

Diplomatic Front:

Secretary of State James A. Baker III defended himself and his department from accusations that they led Iraqi President Saddam Hussein last July to believe that the United States would not oppose an invasion of Kuwait. Baker termed the charges “ludicrous” and “20-20 hindsighting.” Baker also played down the threat of war in the Persian Gulf, saying the United States and its allies still have a “whole host” of non-military options to use against Iraq.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Tarik Aziz said he will boycott the U.N. General Assembly, which convenes today, because the United States has barred his official plane from landing in New York. The State Department told Iraq’s ambassador in Washington last week that Aziz should come to New York on a commercial flight, Aziz told U.N. Secretary General Javier Perez De Cuellar in a letter. Perez de Cuellar said Sunday that he plans to hold more talks with Aziz about Iraq’s refusal to withdraw from Kuwait but did not say when or where they would meet.

Military Front:

The Iraqi president said he would attack Israel and oil fields in Saudi Arabia if his country is “strangled” by mounting international efforts to force Iraqi troops from Kuwait.

Hussein’s message, broadcast on Baghdad Radio, was one of the strongest statements yet by the besieged Iraqi leader and for the first time suggested that he was ready to fight over sanctions. Previously he has indicated that he would only strike if attacked first by Western forces.

Trade Front:

Seven weeks after the United Nations imposed sanctions on Iraq, military equipment and other material with war potential continues to slip through the naval web, according to U.S. military sources. They said some shipments marked for delivery to the Jordanian port of Aqaba are being taken overland to Iraq.

The amount and type of cargo passing through Aqaba is classified information. But officers familiar with the situation indicated that the flow has been fairly extensive. One cargo vessel, intercepted by the U.S. Navy within the past week, carried British-made Land Rovers painted in military camouflage, they said. Another ship was carrying a load of scrap metal, aluminum, silica and other materials that are used to make explosives.

In both cases, the cargoes were listed on the ships’ manifests as bound for Aqaba, and there was no way for American boarding parties to determine whether they were ultimately destined for Iraq, the officers said.

Crisis Indicators:

U.S. Navy interceptions of merchant ships since sanctions were imposed: 1,251. Of those, 880 were in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea and 371 were in the Red Sea.

American citizens and foreign relatives airlifted out of Baghdad: 2,000.

U.S. citizens remaining in Iraq and Kuwait: 1,100