Kremlin Split Keeps Soviets in Iraq, U.S. Says

As many as 1,000 Soviet military advisers are still maintaining aircraft and other military equipment in Iraq because Kremlin leaders are locked in an internal struggle over whether the Soviet Union can afford to completely sever its defense relationship with Baghdad, a senior Pentagon official said Tuesday.

In spite of public urging from Washington that the advisers leave immediately and behind-the-scenes support from Foreign Minister Eduard A. Shevardnadze, some senior Soviet military and foreign policy officials are holding out against an immediate withdrawal, the official said.

“A lot of these people don’t want to see that relationship completely ruptured,” said the official, who spoke to reporters on condition that he not be identified. “They want to keep their foot in the door, to keep the door open.”

The advisers’ continuing presence has become a sensitive issue for the Bush Administration, which has pressed repeatedly for their withdrawal but is reluctant to jeopardize its new rapport with the Soviet Union.

A Pentagon analyst said that the role of the advisers could become critical if the Persian Gulf crisis erupts into an armed conflict between Iraq and the multinational forces assembled in Saudi Arabia. In addition, their locations at crucial air bases throughout Iraq could make them vulnerable to U.S. air strikes.

In recent weeks, Defense Secretary Dick Cheney has said that the presence of the Soviet advisers would not influence a U.S. decision to strike such targets as airfields.

In response to U.S. expressions of concern, Soviet officials have said that they also fear the advisers could become hostages if Moscow acts to withdraw them, despite Iraqi claims that the workers are free to leave.

While the explanation appears to be “basically an excuse,” the Pentagon official said, he conceded that “there’s some substance to it. They don’t want to ask the question because they don’t want to know the answer.”

U.S. analysts estimate that the Soviets have 500 to 1,000 military advisers in Iraq, although not all are uniformed Soviet military personnel. As many as 7,000 more civilian Soviet workers are in Iraq working at oil fields, hydroelectric facilities and irrigation projects, and industrial plants.

Within the Kremlin, the principal proponents of a move to withdraw the Soviet military advisers are in the Foreign Ministry, U.S. analysts believe. But many “Arabists” within the lower levels of the Foreign Ministry, as well as most of the Defense Ministry’s leaders and lower ranks, are reluctant to withdraw the military workers abruptly.