Iraqi Defenses Take a Cue From History : Strategy: U.S. analysts see resemblances in gulf to bloody trench warfare at Verdun in World War I.

“Verdun.”

The very name of the World War I battlefield evokes images of mindless sacrifice: More than a million men killed and wounded in months of pitiless trench warfare as numerically superior German forces sought to bleed the French army to the breaking point.

“They shall not pass!” declared French Gen. Henri Philippe Petain, but it took one of the longest and bloodiest struggles of the Great War to make good the legendary vow.

Now, almost 75 years later, U.S. military analysts say, something approaching that mass slaughter could repeat itself on the sandy wastes of the Arabian Peninsula. In the most detailed portrait yet of what U.S. troops face along the Iraq-Kuwait border with Saudi Arabia, government officials say Iraq’s defensive lines resemble nothing so much as the barbed-wire and mine-fields killing ground of Verdun.

First comes razor wire, government officials say, then three parallel rows of minefields, each several hundred yards deep and dotted with anti-tank and anti-personnel mines purchased over the years from the Soviet Union, China and France.

Between the minefields are anti-tank ditches--each 12 feet deep and eight or nine feet wide--dug by bulldozers and earthmovers and studded with 55-gallon drums of napalm that can be detonated by remote control.

Beyond these obstacles lies the Iraqi infantry, several hundred thousand strong, dug into deep trenches reinforced with concrete-coated steel mesh, wire or reeds.

Behind the troops are hundreds of fortified artillery pieces--from 81-millimeter mortars to long-range 155-millimeter cannons. The Iraqis have also used Soviet-made, four-barreled, anti-aircraft cannons against infantry formations. Known as ZSU-4s, these guns can lay down a withering field of fire over a broad swath of land.

Finally come the tanks, other armored vehicles and self-propelled guns, more than 7,000 in all.

U.S. strategists say current plans dictate that if war comes, American forces will try to use machines--rather than manpower--to soften up and dislodge the entrenched Iraqi forces: sorties by tanks and airborne forces, coupled with massive bombardment from the air and sea.

But, as U.S. Marines learned fighting the Japanese forces dug into Okinawa and other bastions in World War II, eventually American ground forces will almost certainly have to attack the enemy troop concentrations directly--a task that U.S. commanders do not relish.

“No matter how it’s done, it’s going to be bloody,” said Bernard E. Trainor, a retired Marine Corps lieutenant general who is director of national security programs at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government.

The Pentagon estimates that there are now 430,000 Iraqi troops facing U.S. and allied forces in Saudi Arabia. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein also has moved in about 7,700 tanks, armored vehicles and artillery pieces.

By contrast, the United States has fewer than 100,000 ground troops in the area, along with about 75,000 Navy and Air Force personnel.

In addition to the U.S. ground troops, there are another 100,000 soldiers from a multinational force that includes forces from Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Egypt, France, Britain, Pakistan and Bangladesh, among other nations.

The Arab forces are deployed nearest the Saudi border and would likely take the first casualties, officials said. The better-equipped Western armies are in ranks behind them and presumably would supply firepower and rapid reinforcement if the Arab troops come under attack.

In the event of an offensive strike against the Iraqi positions, U.S. planners said, the American and European troops would likely move forward and spearhead the drive with their superior armor, artillery and communications.

Bush Administration officials said the Iraqi buildup indicates that Hussein believes the United States is planning an assault and that he intends to make the ensuing battle as protracted and bloody as possible in hopes of sapping the American will to fight.

“The message of the fortifications is this: We have every intent of holding on to what we took--if you want to come and get it, you’ll pay a hell of a price,” said John M. Collins, a military specialist at the Congressional Research Service.

Moreover, there is growing apprehension in Washington that the lessons of World War I--sometimes dismissed as obsolete in view of modern air power and other advanced technology--may apply to the present situation.

“Military history is essentially the history of people using static defenses and other people trying to overcome them,” said Anthony J. Cordesman, a military specialist on the staff of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who has written extensively on Iraq’s recent war with Iran.

“The result has depended on luck, skill and the relative size of forces on either side,” Cordesman said.

There seems little doubt that the Iraqis have taken a page from the German experience at Verdun--adding some modern twists, such as using giant Japanese earthmovers to build even deeper trenches and thicker earthen berms to shield troops and artillery.

To be sure, while the Verdun-style defenses probably would extract heavy U.S. casualties, the use of such fortifications also carries some penalties for the Iraqis, military analysts said.

“Because any defense can be penetrated, they tend to be so dug in they cannot withdraw,” said Cordesman. “Fortifications shelter you from air and artillery attack, but they allow an attacker to concentrate on certain areas and pin you down.”

Cordesman recalls that in the eight-year war between Iraq and Iran, the Iranians attacked Iraqi positions using waves of young boys sent across minefields, with minimal air cover.

“But the Iranians did not use maneuver, they did not use technology, they did not use air power,” Cordesman pointed out. “It was the antithesis of what the United States and its allies would use.”

U.S. officials who have studied the current Iraqi positions and who watched the Iraqi army operate in the Iran-Iraq War said the deployments in Kuwait and southern Iraq follow a consistent pattern.

The Iraqis have moved all but about 100 of their combat aircraft well back from the front. Fewer than 100 attack helicopters are stationed with the troops, officials said.

By contrast, the United States has nearly 1,000 aircraft and hundreds of helicopters within striking distance of Kuwait and the Iraqi border.

U.S. analysts said the Iraqi deployments are clearly defensive--even though the Pentagon insists publicly that the Iraqis are capable of moving to the offensive on short notice.

“They clearly expect the United States to attack,” one senior Administration analyst asserted. The Iraqi troops are positioned to extract heavy casualties and mount a counteroffensive if the U.S. drive stalls, he said.

The Army Infantry School at Ft. Benning, Ga., teaches every U.S. infantry officer the fundamentals of building and assaulting fortified positions.

The basic drill: Bypass the fortifications. Get behind the enemy and seal off the enemy’s dug-in troops. Try to destroy the opponent’s tanks and artillery to reduce the threat to your forces. Sever supply lines, cut communications and level command and control centers.

U.S. infantry doctrine calls for heavy bombardment, lobbing smoke rounds into enemy positions to conceal the attacking forces and then massing armor and artillery to punch a hole in the enemy line and gradually widen it.

“That’s how we took the Siegfried line” of German defenses in World War II, an Army colonel said.

But military strategists said that for all of today’s sophisticated weaponry, eventually the attacking army must mount a frontal assault--as the Germans did at Verdun after massive artillery barrages. And that is almost certain to prove costly.

“This isn’t glamorous at all,” an Army colonel cautioned. “It’s very basic soldiering stuff. It takes hard, hard work to breach these kinds of obstacles. It takes training, discipline, perseverance and coordination of all the arms available.”

Indeed, as Verdun showed, in such protracted sieges, even a victory can be spoiled. Although the French made new gains after Verdun, the tremendous casualties they suffered sparked a series of mutinies in 1917, and the frightful casualties of World War I haunted France and Britain for decades afterward.

DEADLY BORDER WARFARE

U.S. strategists say American forces would try to soften up and dislodge entrenched Iraqi-forces on the heavily mined frontier with Saudi Arabia with massive air and sea bombardment and sorties by armored and airborne forces.

Behind the minefields and anti-tank fortifications, attacking U.S. forces would encounter thousands of Iraqi troops massed in classic “pitchfork” formation, a tactic they used successfully in the Iran-Iraq War, backed by tanks and artillery.

Anti-tank ditch and barriers 12 feet deep and 8 to 9 feet wide. Filled with “dragon tooth” barriers, metal spikes, burned out vehicles and concrete blocks. 55-gallon drums of napalm that can be detonated by remote control.

Mines Purchased in mass quantities from Soviet Union, France and China. Anti-tank mines, pressure mines, activated by weight of tank. Anti-personnel mines, smaller, more sensitive and often activated by trip wires. Minefield is several hundred yards deep. During the Iraqi-Iran War children were sent into the minefields to set them off and to clear routes for Iranian troops. One major problem for Iraqi forces is the shifting desert sand. When the sand covers the mines too deeply, the mines are often inoperable and will not be as sensitive to the weight of a tank or soldier. Also, the desert winds often blow the sand off the mines, making them visible to oncoming troops.

Troops several hundred thousand strong 3,000-man infantry brigades in “pitchfork” formations. 800 to 900-man reserve battalion in each group. Road for armor and mechanized vehicles and self-propelled guns to swiftly travel to battle areas. Behind the lines, hundreds of artillery pieces, including 4-gun low-level anti-aircraft cannons and rocket launchers as well as tanks and other armored vehicles are firmly dug in to repel any land advances by U.S. troops. Total number: 7,700 tanks, armored vehicles and artillery pieces. Troops are dug into deep trenches that are reinforced with concrete-coated steel mesh, wire or reeds. they tend to be so dug in that they cannot withdraw.