Rapidly Growing Jordan Faces a Desert Disaster: Running Out of Water : Middle East: Shortage is compounded by the actions of its neighbors, Syria and Israel, who tap into the Yarmouk River. Gulf crisis is also aggravating the situation.

Jordan is heading toward the ultimate disaster for a desert nation--it is running out of water.

“The country will face a very serious situation by the turn of the century,” said Tuma Hazou of the United Nations Childrens Fund. “There is just not enough water to go around.”

Unlike many problems of the Middle East, Jordan’s water predicament can be reduced to stark statistics. The figures produced by Dr. Elias Salameh, director of the Water Research and Study Center at the University of Jordan, are grim.

The country’s 3.1 million residents consume 750 million cubic meters of water each year. That amount of water is deposited on Jordan annually, but up to 20% can never be recovered.

“We are exploiting more than we get in renewable resources,” Salameh said in an interview at his research center. “It means we are mining our ground water.”

At present, the annual deficit is filled by pumping ancient water deposits, which can never be replaced, from beneath the desert in the south of the country.

For the 1.2 million residents of Amman, and several other urban centers, water is strictly rationed during the summer months. Taps are opened only two days a week, with residents depending on water stored in rooftop tanks the rest of the time.

The problem is mainly one of too many people. The country had only about 400,000 people in 1948 and the population has been growing by at least 3.5% a year--doubling every 20 years.

In addition, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait could force more than 100,000 Jordanian expatriates to return permanently.

Jordan’s water shortage is compounded by the actions of its neighbors, Syria and, especially, Israel. Both border Jordan along the Yarmouk River, a 25-mile tributary of the Jordan River that is a major source of the country’s water.

Although it was never formally signed, the water quotas in the U.S.-brokered Johnston agreement of the 1950s were honored by the three states. Jordanians now openly accuse the others of cheating.

According to Salameh’s research, Syria is taking up to 170 million cubic meters of Yarmouk water annually, instead of the 90 million provided in the agreement.

He accuses Israel, which captured the neighboring Golan Heights in the 1967 Middle East War, of taking 100 million cubic meters of water annually instead of the 25 million authorized. Israel has defended its practice as merely taking surplus water.

“We used to get 120 to 140 million cubic meters but last year it was less than 120 because the other countries are over-pumping from the Yarmouk,” he said. Jordan’s annual share under the plan was to be 377 million cubic meters.

Jordan’s options are almost non-existent. Salameh believes Syria is taking water to increase its leverage over its smaller neighbor, while Israel simply needs the water.

“We can ask the Syrians to let the water flow peacefully in the channel, but they won’t,” he said. “The Israelis need the water themselves. Whether it is theirs or not, they need it. And I don’t think they will give up a drop.”

Jordan has long talked about building a dam on the Yarmouk to save winter runoff, but the lack of agreement from Israel has blocked any World Bank funding.

In any case, Salameh believes, the flow has been so severely reduced that the projected Yarmouk dam may no longer be practical.

There are minor projects under way and Jordan hopes for more recycling, but those schemes are insufficient to close even the current gap in renewable water, not to mention the future needs of a growing population.

“We are 3.1 million inhabitants and the resources of the country cannot support more than that,” the West German-educated water expert said.

Already over-pumping is damaging present sources of water, with the Azraq oasis that provides water to Amman showing signs of salination. Industrialization has polluted other sites.

“I don’t see any probable outcome in the next 10 to 15 years other than cutting back on agriculture,” Salameh said. Farmers in the Jordan Valley already suffer water cuts.

The choices are difficult, if not impossible. Agriculture takes too much water, but resource-poor Jordan is unlikely to develop the industry to pay for food imports.

“If you consider the history of the Middle East, the whole development of life was around water,” Salameh said. “The limiting factor for growth and population is water. Conflicts and life were shaped by water.”