Global Warming Could Sink Maldives : Maldivians Fear Global Warming Could Sink Their Island Nation in Indian Ocean

Welcome to paradise--for as long as it stays above water. The people of this chain of palm-studded islands fear that global warming could condemn their nation to geological history.

If the Earth gets hotter, as some scientists predict, the Maldives could be swamped by rising seas and violent storms. The Indian Ocean archipelago almost certainly would be among the first casualties of the greenhouse effect.

“We may have some islands just disappear. That is according to the business-as-usual scenario. I would hope that the international community would take note and do something before that happens,” said Hussain Shihab, the Maldives’ director of environment affairs.

According to some estimates, unchecked emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases will raise the sea level by a foot in the next 40 years--submerging much of the Maldives’ 175 square miles of land.

The Maldives, about 400 miles south of India and the same distance west of Sri Lanka, are little more than clumps of coconut palms fringed by white sand in a nest of coral reefs.

The 1,190 islands are clustered in atolls in an archipelago 510 miles long. Just 200 islands are inhabited and a quarter of the nation’s 200,000 people live on Male island, which covers barely 1 square mile.

Few of the islands are more than 6 feet above sea level, so a big splash can be devastating, as demonstrated in April, 1987, when a tidal wave rolled over the island nation.

Two-thirds of Male, the Maldivian capital, was flooded by seawater. The international airport on neighboring Hulule was closed for two days, and entire fishing villages were under water.

Shihab said damage totaled $40 million--half this nation’s annual gross domestic product.

Some experts said the freak storm originated 4,000 miles away in the south Indian Ocean, underlining the Maldives’ vulnerability to faraway calamities.

The disaster forced Maldivians to take a more appreciative look at their coral reefs, the feeding grounds for a stunning array of tropical fish. The reefs provide a natural barrier from an often hostile sea.

The mining of coral, the basic building material for most houses here, was forbidden on reefs connected to islands. The ban eventually will be extended to unattached atolls, although importing cement will be costly, Shihab said.

Traditionally dependent on fishing and tuna exports, the islands’ energy needs are small. There is no heavy industry, and Male has only a few dozen cars. Experiments with solar power promise to further decrease dependency on polluting fossil fuels.

As a result, the Maldivians have felt few constraints about pressing for worldwide controls on emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that threaten the islands.

These gases build a shield in the atmosphere that traps heat, and many experts predict that higher temperatures will change weather patterns and raise sea levels, endangering coastal areas and low-lying countries. Some experts disagree, arguing that such long-term effects are unclear.