November’s Retail Sales Decline 0.1%, Proving Shoppers Feel Pinched : Economy: The $151.6 billion that buyers spent was ‘a recession-type number,’ one analyst says. But the Commerce Department figures were better than many expected.

In a fresh sign of how tight holiday shoppers’ pocketbooks have gotten, the federal government reported Thursday that retail sales fell 0.1% in November from the month before.

The retail sales total, at a seasonally adjusted $151.6 billion, was up 3.4% from weak November, 1989, results. But with inflation running at more than 6% this year, it means that most merchants are doing less--or no more--business than in 1989.

“It’s not what a number of retailers were looking for, but we have to understand that we’re probably in a recession,” said Rosalind Wells, chief economist of the National Retail Federation trade group. She called the sales total “a recession-type number.”

Even so, the Commerce Department figures were better than many economists expected, given the weak sales reports released by major retailers last week. A Dow Jones survey had forecast a monthly decline of 0.9%.

Also, car sales--which depressed the November retail sales total--staged a big, though possibly misleading, rebound in early December, auto makers reported Thursday.

The figures, however, did little to change the growing opinion that the economy has sunk into a recession and that consumers have grown increasingly cautious. Retailing analysts predicted that department stores and specialty shops will enjoy a surge of business in the days before Christmas, but not enough to turn around what so far has been a dismal holiday shopping season.

They also said that, to drum up business, more retailers will follow such giants as Sears, Roebuck & Co. and Toys R Us in offering more and deeper price cuts on holiday merchandise.

The weak figures reported by the Commerce Department were blamed on worries about the Persian Gulf crisis, rising unemployment, declining consumer confidence and rising energy prices.

“Most Americans are laying out so much more money at the gas pump and on home heating oil that their discretionary buying power is substantially reduced,” said Kurt Barnard, publisher of the Retail Marketing Report newsletter.

“There’s a strong feeling across the country that it’s more prudent so save financial resources than to spend them.”

“People are going to buy less than they did in the past year, and they’ll spend less on what they will buy,” Barnard added.

One of the likely results: more retailing bankruptcies, said Carl Steidtmann, chief economist for the retail consulting firm Management Horizons. Along with the companies burdened with junk bond debts, he said, the list of failures likely will include retail chains that simply can no longer make enough money to stay afloat.

The retail sales drop, following a revised 0.2% gain in October, was the first monthly decline since May.

Among the few comparatively bright spots was the apparel specialty store category, where sales were up 0.8% from October and 2.3%--before accounting for inflation--from a year ago. Gasoline dealer sales climbed 0.7% from October and 21.6% from a year earlier, largely as a result of increased prices amid the Persian Gulf crisis.

Drugstore sales also climbed, up 0.2% from October and 8.4% from November, 1989. Furniture sales rose 0.3% from October, but were down 1.7% from last November.

Much of the weakness came at home improvement stores, where seasonally adjusted sales totals were down 2.6% from October and 5.2% from a year ago. At department stores, seasonally adjusted sales fell 0.2% from October but rose 1.1% from a year ago.

Auto sales, a major component of the government figures, were down 1.3% from the month before and little changed from a year ago. Eliminating the auto sales category, retail sales in November posted a 0.2% gain from October and a 4.3% increase from November, 1989.

Separately, the 10 companies producing cars and trucks in the United States reported a 22.3% sales increase during the first 10 days of December.

VEHICLE SALES

Dec. 1-10 % change 1990 year to year GM* 99,399 +22.2 Ford* 75,114 +32.5 Chrysler* 32,246 +4.7 Honda U.S. 3,821 -31.6 Mitsubishi U.S. 875 +35.0 Nissan U.S.* 3,006 +49.1 Toyota U.S. 4,628 +47.4 Mazda U.S.* 1,186 +147.1 Subaru U.S. 347 ** Isuzu U.S.* 370 ** TOTAL 220,992 +22.3

*Includes light truck sales.

**No comparison possible.

There were 8 selling days in the selling period this year and last year.