Our Reporters Cast Their Votes

1. How do you rate the chances of war in the Persian Gulf?

A virtual certainty . . . 1

Very high . . . 11

Moderate . . . 11

Low . . . 4

It will never happen . . . 2

2. Will the Soviet Union survive in its present form to 1992?

Probably for far longer . . . 1

Probably . . . 12

I doubt it . . . 10

No way . . . 6

3. Will Mikhail Gorbachev still be in power next year at this time?

Certainly . . . 4

Probably . . . 20

I doubt it . . . 5

Mikhail who? . . . 0

4. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize this year?

George Bush . . . 1

Vaclav Havel . . . 3

Saddam Hussein . . . 0

Other--please specify

S. African President Frederik W. de Klerk . . . 2

De Klerk jointly with African National Congress leader Nelson Mandela . . . 4

The United Nations or one of its agencies . . . 4

Jordan’s King Hussein . . . 2

5. How do you rate the chances of a worldwide recession in 1991?

90% or better . . . 2

50-50 . . . 8

One in four . . . 16

Watch for an economic boom instead . . . 0

6. What is the country/region most under-reported by the American media relative to its real significance?

Yugoslavia . . . 0

Latin America . . . 4

China . . . 2

Malaysia . . . 0

Other--please specify

India . . . 3

Japan . . . 3

Western Europe . . . 3

The Third World . . . 2

Soviet hinterlands . . . 2

7. What are the three most overworked political phrases you’ll hear in 1991?

“The new international order,” the “post-Cold War era” and variations . . . 6

“European unity,” the “new Europe” and variations . . . 5

The “Mideast peace process” and variations . . . 3

Others:

Cyprus for the Cypriots

Thatcherism without Thatcher

Read my lips

National reconciliation

Aggression must not be rewarded

Fragile East European democracies

We need more U.S. aid

No one said it would be easy