Exacting Forecaster Stays on a Hot Streak : Weather: Many local farmers consider Terry Schaeffer an unsung hero for his precise predictions and voluminous knowledge of the area.

Call him the weather guru. In a drafty office above a garage in Santa Paula, Terry Schaeffer is working overtime.

He is the National Weather Service’s meteorologist for Ventura County--a job that requires a knowledge of physics, the exactness of mathematics and the belief that the moods of nature can be correctly predicted.

When it comes to forecasting Ventura County’s cold and hot spells, Schaeffer is the authority. He predicted last month’s devastating freeze five days before it occurred, giving farmers, whose livelihoods balance on a few degrees, extra time to prepare. And he was able to pinpoint the temperatures throughout the county with stunning accuracy.

“You can have computers and down links from satellites,” said Rex Laird, executive director of the Ventura County Farm Bureau. “But it all comes down to his knowledge of the area.

“What he offers is not the typical meteorologist bill of fare. He can forecast temperatures to one or two degrees, and that’s what we need. He’s our unsung hero.”

The meteorologist runs a frugal operation. A couple of overworked printers spit out weather forecasts. Old maps line the walls, and a small window, patched with duct tape to keep out dust and winter’s chill, provides a view of the outside world.

Schaeffer, who for 15 years has worked for the federal government predicting the weather in nearly a dozen zones in Ventura County, takes a moment away from his work and relaxes in a wooden office chair given to him by a farmer.

“I like the work,” he said. “There’s always something new every day. Sometimes the sea breeze will start early, or the dew on the trees will burn off late. It’s never the same. It’s challenging.”

It takes him several hours to formulate a forecast. He studies daily weather maps that detail barometric pressure and temperatures. A $3,500 computer purchased for him by area farmers allows him to track any weather front in the Western Hemisphere via satellite.

But office work is only half of Schaeffer’s job. The rest of the time he is in the field, trying to gain a greater understanding of how the climate varies throughout the county. He checks weather meters, visits with farmers and studies the direction of the clouds and the wind.

“I like to get out just to feel the drift on my face,” said Schaeffer, 45. “If I see a guy lighting an orchard heater, I’ll stop to talk. I have as much to learn from the farmers as they do from me.”

During the four-day freeze in December that destroyed an estimated $100 million in crops, Schaeffer spent the nights with the farmers in the fields, thermometer ready to test soil and fruit.

“I knew we were bordering on a historical event,” Schaeffer said. “I wanted to be a part of it.”

And farmers appreciate his approach, although sometimes they give him a hard time when they don’t like his forecasts.

“He takes a lot of ribbing,” Laird said. “People yell at him when he walks down the street: ‘Hey when’s it going to rain?’ They hold him responsible.”

Last week, when the rain finally came, Schaeffer got the credit.

“Hey, thanks for making it rain,” said one man, who recognized the meteorologist as he was eating lunch at a restaurant at Santa Paula Airport.

Schaeffer--thin, bearded and armed with an easy-going style--grins.

“Sure, no problem,” he said.

He has become a sort of celebrity with the local farmers.

“Everyone feels like they know him, whether they do or not,” said Roger Orr, manager of two ranches in the Santa Paula area. “We listen to him every day in the winter. When he says things look ominous, you better listen.”

Farmers can hear Schaeffer’s forecasts every day on several Ventura County radio stations or call an unlisted number at 10 a.m. and 6:30 p.m. to get a taped update.

Laird said the “litmus test” of Schaeffer’s accuracy is shown by the frequency with which farmers call the unlisted number--available only to area growers who pay a fee--for updates on the county’s weather conditions. During the 10 days before and after the freeze, the line received nearly 10,000 calls.

One Florida grower, competing with the California citrus farmers, tried to get the number to find out how grave things were in the county, Laird said. He was told that the number, changed every year, was not available to outside growers.

Schaeffer’s service was previously funded through the county’s general fund, but the money was eventually cut from the budget. Although his $45,000-a-year salary is paid by the federal government, he depends on support from local farmers and the agricultural commissioner’s office to run the shoestring operation and update his equipment.

He says the money doesn’t matter.

“The job is really pretty rewarding,” he said. “It’s the kind of job where you can see some of the returns, and the growers appreciate what you’re doing for them.”

He earned a bachelor of science degree in meteorology from Northern Illinois University in DeKalb, then interned at a weather bureau at the international airport in Cleveland, Ohio.

Schaeffer came to Ventura County as part of the weather service’s “Fruit Frost Service,” a program developed in 1917 to provide agricultural regions with their own forecasters. About 10 meteorologists work for the frost service in California.

Laird said he has watched farmers bank thousands of dollars on Schaeffer’s word.

“We’re talking major, major money, and major economic decisions are being made on his forecasts,” Laird said. For example, if Schaeffer warns that the temperature will plummet to near freezing, some farmers will spend $1,800 just to reserve a helicopter to hover over the farm to circulate the air.

Although last month’s freeze was devastating, the effects would have been worse if it were not for Schaeffer’s early warning, said Don Reeder, manager of Pro Ag Inc. in Moorpark.

“I called him three days before the frost, and we talked about the best measures to take,” Reeder said. “It paid off.

“He’ll drive us crazy sometimes, when he predicts things we don’t want to hear. But his service is very valuable to us.”