Myanmar’s Military Crushes Rivals : Repression: Thousands of leading dissidents may be in jail. Analysts don’t see where further opposition can come from.

The people of Myanmar, who lost an uprising for democracy in 1988 that presaged similar movements elsewhere, have little hope of ending military rule this year.

With hundreds, perhaps thousands, of leading dissidents in jail, diplomats and other analysts do not see where further opposition can come from.

The opposition’s inability to resist military repression has caused some supporters at home and abroad to lose faith in its capacity to effect change.

Western governments have shunned Myanmar, formerly Burma, since the army killed thousands of peaceful demonstrators in 1988, but some policy-makers now favor better relations in the interest of cooperation on such issues as narcotics.

“There doesn’t seem to be much alternative,” a diplomat based in Yangon (formerly Rangoon) said, on condition of anonymity. “More people are thinking about what you do if nothing much is going to change in the next three to four years.”

David Steinberg, an Asia specialist at Georgetown University in the United States, said in a telephone interview that more dialogue would be beneficial.

“I don’t believe in cutting off ties with any country,” he said. “The only way is to operate on an informal basis and try to explain to the government how the rest of the world perceives them. I don’t think they really realize the depth of feeling among foreign governments about issues like human rights.”

In May, 1990, the National League for Democracy won an impressive victory in the first free general election in three decades.

Its demise afterward was equally dramatic. Instead of relinquishing power, the military increased its suppression of dissent and arrested those who led the party to victory.

Soldiers began raiding Buddhist monasteries in late October and detained hundreds of monks who joined an anti-military boycott.

Kyi Maung, acting leader of the League for Democracy, was sentenced to 10 years in prison in November and several other senior figures in the league have been given lengthy terms. Maung Ko, an influential organizer, died in custody. Reports said he had been tortured.

“The government has pretty much eliminated its hard-core opponents and is looking every day for new reasons to clamp down,” said the diplomat in Yangon.

A European businessman recently in Myanmar said most Burmese were afraid to talk politics in public.

“People seemed very depressed,” he said, also on condition of anonymity. “They don’t believe they can overthrow the government and they don’t believe the military is going to step down.”

Steinberg said removing people like Kyi Maung, a moderate considered to have the potential of mediating between the army and its critics, would only radicalize the opposition.

“That can be dangerous” to the military, he said, and likened the situation in Myanmar to that in Argentina and Chile when their armies were in power.

A major question is the future of Aung San Suu Kyi, the league’s leader and the most outspoken opponent of military rule, who has been under house arrest since July, 1989. The government has said her political career is over and she will be released only if she agrees to leave the country and quit politics.

Another is the status of Gen. Ne Win, the military dictator who made Myanmar a hermit autocracy from 1962 until his official resignation in mid-1988.

Many analysts believe Ne Win, 79, remains a major influence on Gen. Saw Maung’s government and see little hope of change while he lives. Diplomats spotted Ne Win at a wedding in early January, apparently in the best of health.

In Steinberg’s view, Ne Win’s influence is evident in the government’s refusal to devalue the kyat currency to a level that would encourage foreign investment.

“It’s clear that no significant action is taken that would run counter to Ne Win’s views,” he said.

Dissidents hope that U.N. investigator Sagato Ogata will draw attention to the human rights situation when she submits a report on Myanmar in February.

In November, after several authoritarian governments expressed opposition, the United Nations shelved a resolution demanding the release of all political prisoners and expressing concern about the military’s failure to leave power. The resolution may be reconsidered this year.

Late in 1990, several opposition members of Parliament fled to the headquarters of the Karen rebel group on the Thai frontier and declared a parallel government. They still hope for international recognition.