Political Opposition May Undercut Japan’s Aid Pledge : War funding: If Parliament approves the $9 billion, it will probably restrict it to noncombat purposes.

The Japanese government’s pledge of an additional $9 billion to support the multinational forces in the Persian Gulf War was an impressive number, but it may be no more than that--just a number.

Deeply entrenched pacifist sentiment in the political opposition and among the population at large threatens to either block the appropriation or strip it of real significance by limiting its use to non-military purposes.

That means that if the $9 billion is eventually approved by Parliament after an anticipated, raucous anti-war debate, strings are likely to be attached that would bar the money from paying for costly high-tech weapons systems.

Instead, the money would have to be used in the same way as Japan’s previous $2 billion commitment, for transportation costs and for noncombat equipment. Such expenses are important, but they are believed to be a relatively small portion of the $500-million-a-day war expenses.

There have been conflicting reports on whether the initial $2 billion is anywhere near being spent. Japanese officials say the entire amount has been paid out to the Gulf Cooperation Council and that as of Jan. 10, about $760 million had been allocated for specific contracts. Fleets of four-wheel-drive vehicles, water tank trucks and desalination plants were among logistic materiel covered by the Japanese money.

The administration of Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu could face acute embarrassment if the pacifist opposition gains the upper hand and attaches similar restrictions on the use of the new funds, which were calculated to have Japan shoulder a 20% share of the cost of the war over a three-month period.

Lawmakers also will debate Kaifu’s controversial decision to bypass Parliament in sending military C-130 transport planes to ferry refugees out of danger spots in the Middle East. Last year the prime minister suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of the pacifist opposition when he tried to introduce a bill authorizing deployment of Self-Defense Forces troops for noncombat roles in the gulf.

This time, government officials contend that no legal revision is necessary. But the opposition contends that any military dispatch would violate Japan’s postwar peace constitution, even if undertaken on humanitarian grounds.

An unfavorable outcome in Parliament would not only undermine Kaifu’s already weak political leadership, it would further muddle Japan’s role in the Persian Gulf crisis and possibly aggravate strained relations with the United States. Many Japanese opinion leaders fear that a botched effort at cooperation could breed anti-Japanese emotions and ignite a trade war with America.

Kaifu told Parliament on Friday that it is the Japan’s “natural duty” to support the U.S.-led coalition forces and that “refusal to fulfill this obligation and failure to do what we can would mean choosing the road to international isolation for Japan.”

Attention is now focused on the centrist Komei (Clean Government) Party, which holds a decisive swing vote in the opposition-dominated upper house. Komei lawmakers are almost exclusively backed by Soka Gakkai, a cult-like lay Buddhist organization that has been a leading voice in the Japanese peace movement.

The Komei Party has announced that it would support the $9 billion appropriation only on the condition that it not be spent on weapons or ammunition. The party also said it opposes the government’s plan to hike taxes to help raise the money.

Rengo, Japan’s largest labor organization, has demanded that the $9 billion be used solely for “peacekeeping and humanitarian activities.” Anti-military sentiments have run strongly through public opinion since the crisis began last August and have intensified since fighting began Jan. 17.

More than 15,000 people attended rallies Saturday in Meiji Park and other locations in Tokyo to protest the government’s support for the coalition in the gulf war and plans to send Japanese military transport planes to the region.

In a telephone survey conducted by the quasi-governmental Japan Broadcasting Corp. (NHK) between Jan. 17-19, 51% of those polled opposed the attack on Iraq by the multinational forces. Nearly two-thirds of the women were opposed, while the majority of men approved the use of military force.

A slim majority of respondents also was against the idea of sending Self-Defense Forces aircraft to transport refugees in the region.

The prevailing mood here suggests that the Japanese are resigned to making some form of contribution to the allied action in the Persian Gulf, even if most oppose the use of military force. But that attitude apparently is inspired by a desire to avoid disapproval from the United States, not to take a moral stand in the war against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein or to protect Japan’s own strategic interests in the region.