Might Have to Import Oil by ‘93, Soviets Say

Oil officials in the world’s largest oil-producing nation are warning that if the sharp decline in Soviet output continues, it could force the Soviet Union to start importing petroleum by the end of 1993.

Since oil provides a major part of Soviet export earnings, such a reversal of fortunes could wreak havoc on the already crumbling economy.

A shortage of spare parts for notoriously shoddy equipment has reduced oil production to 552 million metric tons in 1990 from 589 million metric tons in 1989, Evgeny Kochenev, chief engineer of the Ministry of Oil and Gas, said Tuesday. He forecast a further drop to 528 million metric tons this year. That would amount to a 10% decline in just two years.

A metric ton is equal to about 7 barrels, or 294 gallons.

Officials of the Soviet Union’s largest oil field in Tyumen are warning President Mikhail S. Gorbachev that the drop in oil production is even more precipitous, and could turn the country from an oil exporter to an oil importer in as little as three years, Pravda reported Monday.

Tyumen officials have been complaining for months that their facilities are crumbling due to severe shortages of parts for drills, pumps and pipelines.

Most industries across the Soviet Union are suffering from shortages of raw materials and parts, leading to a vicious circle of declining production at one factory after another.

Oil production in the Tyumen district alone dropped 30 million metric tons in 1990 and could fall another 50 million metric tons this year, Pravda said, quoting a letter to Gorbachev from the area’s government, business, union and Communist Party officials.