Israelis Say Iraqi Shift of Jets to Iran Lessens Chemical War Threat : Missiles: Troops have skills to destroy the launchers firing Scuds, former military chief says.

While Washington and its allies struggled to interpret the movement of Iraqi jets to Iran, top Israeli officials reached one conclusion Tuesday: The move has reduced the threat of a chemical attack on Israel.

Defense Minister Moshe Arens said all of Iraq’s Soviet-supplied SU-24 bombers, which have the range to reach Israel and deliver deadly poison gas bombs, had flown to Iran. They still can get to Israel, experts pointed out, but on their return flight eastward they would have to refuel in midair, an undertaking that would make them vulnerable to attack. Barring that, the jets would have to land in Jordan.

In any event, Israel would get an earlier warning if a strike were launched from distant Iran.

“I think that it is a safe assumption that the Iraqi aircraft that have landed in Iran are out of the war for the duration,” Arens said in remarks to a defense committee of the Israeli Parliament. “If we assume that these aircraft will not take part in this war, then of course it is a very significant reduction in the military potential of the Iraqis, and it reduces very significantly the capability of the Iraqis to launch an aerial attack against Israel.”

The missile threat will last no more than a month, Arens predicted. And he claimed that the Iraqis possess no nuclear weapons and that their biological arms stock is “not effective.”

The allies have begun to damage underground hangars, Israel Radio quoted Arens as saying. Countering the opinion of several Israeli experts, Arens said that the United States and its allies are better situated to knock out Iraqi missile launchers than Israel is.

Arens’ assessment was the first that seemed aimed at easing Israeli concerns that the Jewish state may soon be attacked with chemical weapons. Israelis have been put on edge by escalating rhetoric from Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, who told an interviewer in Baghdad that chemical, biological and nuclear weapons can be fitted on the type of ballistic missiles he has already fired at Israel.

Although there has been disagreement here on whether the chemical-nuclear missile threat is real, all Israelis agree that the SU-24s could carry chemical weapons.

Israeli officials have been pressing Washington to approve Israel’s plans to strike at Iraq, and expert observers have begun to speak of a preemptive attack in order to preclude any chance of a chemical or nuclear strike.

Due to its long experience in wars with Arab troops, the Israeli armed forces possess special skills that could be applied to destroying the launchers firing Iraq’s Scud missiles, Mordechai Gur, a former military chief of staff and now a member of Parliament, said Tuesday.

“This would be a pinpoint operation. We prepare ourselves to handle very special issues. We can do things others cannot,” Gur said. “We should reconsider the policy of restraint.”

Gur suggested a joint land and air attack as the best way to get at the launchers, although the task of transporting Israeli troops to the war zone would be daunting. Overland passage would have the troops, tanks and artillery going over hostile Jordanian or Syrian territory or through Saudi Arabia. It is unlikely that Saudi Arabia, which does not recognize Israel’s statehood, would welcome the Israelis even if they helped win the war against Iraq.

As for American objections that Israeli preemption could upset Washington’s delicate alliance with Arab states, Gur said that Israel cannot indefinitely sit idle while its own civilians are in danger. “We have to hold down our casualties too. This is a responsibility of our government,” he concluded.

Other Israeli defense experts have contended that Israel would be solely dedicated to knocking out the missiles threatening its coastal cities. Thus it would focus more firepower on western Iraq, where those launchers are located, increasing the chances of a hit.

Ariel Sharon, the hawkish housing minister and former defense minister, weighed in with an opinion favoring an Israeli strike. “Israel can prevent or significantly reduce the firing of missiles from western Iraq,” he argued.

Iraq lobbed a single Scud missile at Israel on Monday, but it fell short of Tel Aviv and apparently disintegrated in the air. The impact made a crater near the West Bank Palestinian village of Deir Ballut, and pieces of the missile were scattered around other villages.

None of the U.S.-supplied Patriot defensive missiles was activated to shoot down the Scud. Israeli officials said that was unnecessary since the Scud fell outside the protective shield offered by the Patriots, which are set up to defend cities in Israel.

Hussein has singled out Tel Aviv as his main target. In seven volleys, he has launched almost 30 missiles against the populous Israeli coast. Some have landed in Haifa, Israel’s northern port.

While most Israeli ears were cocked for the sound of air raid sirens, there was a brief diversion in Lebanon, where guerrillas launched a barrage of Katyusha rockets on the Israeli border early Tuesday. There were reports that Israel reacted with naval cannon, helicopter and artillery fire, pouring shells on the Rashidiyeh Palestinian refugee camp near Sidon in southern Lebanon.

Officials said that Israel will not show the same restraint in responding to attacks from Lebanon, a longtime hot spot, as it has to missile attacks from Iraq.

Government spokesmen blamed Palestine Liberation Organization leader Yasser Arafat for the rocket attack and called it an attempt to open a second front on behalf of Iraq. Hussein has tried to expand the scope of the Persian Gulf War by drawing in Israel as a combatant.

“There is a partnership of destiny between Saddam Hussein and Yasser Arafat,” said Uri Lubrani, an Israeli Defense Ministry official in charge of the security zone that Israel maintains in southern Lebanon. “In this partnership, every side is asked to do what he can for the common effort.”

Reports from Lebanon differed on who fired the Soviet-designed Katyushas, a multiple-launch, helter-skelter weapon with a range of 25 miles. According to one report, the Nationalist Resistance Front, an alliance of Lebanese and Palestinian guerrillas, claimed responsibility. Other reports attributed the attack to the PLO, but they were denied by a PLO spokesman in Tunis, where the guerrilla organization is headquartered.

In any case, there will be no restraint on counterrattacks in Lebanon, added government spokesman Yossi Olmert. “For us, Lebanon is Lebanon and not connected to the Gulf War,” he said. “There is no ideology of holding back in this case.”