Public Opinion in Egypt Turning Slowly Against the 3-Week-Old War

To Samia Farid, the war in the Gulf became reality only last Wednesday, when she noticed that the wards in the hospital where she works were being emptied to make room for the casualties Egypt expects to suffer in a ground offensive to liberate Kuwait.

“Until then,” she said, “I did not realize what it would mean to be at war. It was still too far away. Until then, I supported the government, but now I am not so sure.”

Slowly but perceptibly, public opinion in Egypt is beginning to shift. While a vocal but still small minority is advocating a pro-Iraqi position, the broader change is not tilting in favor of Iraq so much as it is shifting against the nearly three-week-old war.

“Most everyone here believes the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait was bad,” said Ali Hillal Dessouki, a Cairo University political scientist. “But some people are now starting to say that the war against Iraq is worse.”

The shift, according to most political analysts, diplomats and officials, as yet poses no significant problem for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, a staunch supporter of the allied effort to remove Iraq from Kuwait.

“There is no indication the government is overly worried about opposition to the war at this stage,” a senior European diplomat said. “It has not affected Mubarak’s resolve.”

However, most analysts agree, what is mostly manifest now as a rising level of anxiety over the war and Egypt’s active role could harden into a more significant opposition if the conflict drags on for several months--or if Egyptian casualties start to come home in large numbers.

Egypt has more than 35,000 troops in Saudi Arabia--one of the largest ground contingents among allied forces there--and doctors at several Cairo hospitals report that non-emergency admissions are being deferred to ensure that enough beds are on hand for war casualties.

Government officials dismiss as exaggerated and alarmist speculation about growing opposition to Egypt’s active participation in the war effort. In the absence of public opinion polls, this assessment is difficult to verify. But repeated efforts of journalists and diplomats to probe sentiments on the street have so far turned up nothing to contradict the government line.

Several opposition groups, including the fundamentalist-dominated Socialist Labor Party and the more establishment-oriented Muslim Brotherhood, have tried to organize public protests. But their attempts to date have largely fizzled. Attendance at their rallies, one opposition organizer admitted, has been embarrassingly low.

Still, the government has betrayed its concern that the mood could turn by moving swiftly to contain even limited manifestations of dissent.

The deputy editor of an opposition newspaper has been arrested for urging worshipers at a Friday prayer service to protest Egypt’s involvement in the war. The midyear break for high schools and universities has been extended, and soccer matches have been canceled for fear that demonstrations could erupt.

“These are preemptive actions, almost reflexive responses, that suggest they know opinion is shifting and they want to delay it,” one diplomat said. “Feelings about the war here are very mixed, and they could start to change fairly quickly.”

If Egyptian opposition to the war has not formed as quickly as it has in other Arab countries outside the Gulf, it is partly because of the power of tales brought home from Iraq by tens of thousands of returning Egyptian workers. Even before the invasion of Kuwait, stories of Iraqi mistreatment of Egyptian laborers were legion. Since Egypt joined the allied coalition against Iraq, the tales have gotten worse.

“There are stories of murder and mistreatment, of being robbed and beaten by the Iraqis, and they’ve had a tremendous impact on the Egyptian street,” one diplomat said.

Another factor has to do with national pride and what Egyptians perceive as their own central role in the Arab world. “One reason Saddam Hussein’s claim to lead the Arab world has fallen flat here is that Egyptians cannot conceive of anyone who is not Egyptian claiming to lead the Arab world,” the diplomat said.

Nevertheless, as the relentless allied bombing of Iraq continues--and as some Egyptian laborers flee Iraq with accounts of the damage--an unmistakable degree of admiration is beginning to seep into the comments of Egyptians when they speak of Iraqi courage in withstanding the assault.

“Before the war started, people here were overwhelmingly against Saddam,” said Fahmy Hueidy, a journalist who is considered an expert on the Islamic trend in Egypt. “But this began to change when the war started and people saw that here was an Arab leader who could challenge the West and stand up to Israel. People here are depressed. This regime (Mubarak’s) has not achieved very much, and people are missing a leader. The longer Saddam lasts, the more he will start to appeal to all Arabs, including Egyptians.”

And as the time draws near when Egyptians soon may be counted among the war’s casualties, resentment is also rapidly growing at the way rich, young and sometimes obnoxious Kuwaitis are “suffering” through their exile in the luxury of Cairo’s five-star hotels and expensive discotheques.

“Kuwaitis have always behaved very arrogantly toward Egyptians, and there is a lot of resentment at this,” an Egyptian businessman readily agreed.

“I am against the invasion of Kuwait, and I feel sorry that they’ve lost their country,” the businessman added. “But now, when I see them here, ‘struggling’ in the discotheques and acting like we are their servants, I have to ask myself why Egyptian soldiers are going off to fight and die for them.”